Gender norms and partnership dissolution following involuntary job loss in Germany

We study the impact of job loss on the risk of separation among German couples. We focus on job losses due to plant closures and involuntary dismissals as a source of variation that is likely to be independent of other individual risk factors for partnership dissolution. We use panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (1986–2019) for persons aged 20-65. We use event study design and propensity score matching combined with the difference-in-differences approach to analyse the effects of involuntary job loss on the likelihood of divorce or separation within three years. First, in our event study design, we find an increase in the probability of union dissolution in the year following job loss by around two percentage points (ppts). In our matching design combined with the difference-in-differences approach, union dissolution risk increases by 2.12 ppts for our treatment group compared to our control group within three years of the job loss. This increase in union dissolution risk is slightly higher in the case of male job loss (2.23 ppts) than for job loss among women (1.64 ppts) over three years compared to those not exposed to involuntary job loss. We analyse differences between East and West Germany and between migrants from different countries of origin to examine the role of gender norms. Gender norms in the place of origin do not seem to explain the increased union dissolution risk. However, the individual-level gender norms based on males’ share of home production activities in the couple over the years show an increased risk of union dissolution for the traditional half and no effect for the liberal half of the men losing their jobs. The effect of involuntary job loss on union dissolution risk is mediated by declining family life satisfaction, males’ share of hours spent on home production and lower household income for the person experiencing involuntary job loss.