IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2022-031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Research note: comparing ideal family size with observed and forecasted completed cohort fertility in Denmark and Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Fallesen
  • Lars Dommermuth
  • Julia Hellstrand

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Emil Simonsen
  • Lisbeth Trille Gylling Loft
  • Laust H. Mortensen

Abstract

We examine whether cohort ideals for children exhibit similar trends as those produced by cohort fertility forecasts in Denmark and Norway – two Nordic countries on diverging fertility trajectories. We use recent data from the Generation and Gender Survey to obtain measures of stated ideal family sizes and compare these stated ideals to those suggested by forecasts. In both Denmark and Norway, women express higher ideal family sizes than the number of children they can expect to have. For Denmark, the difference between stated ideal and expected number of children is stable over forecasts for more recent birth cohorts, whereas for Norway there is an increasing gap across recent birth cohorts between women’s ideal number of children and their expected cohort fertility driven by forecasted decline in cohort fertility. Norway either must see a fertility schedule for cohorts still in the childbearing age drastically different to any schedule ever recorded previously or should expect an increasing deficit in childbearing quantum relative to ideals. Keywords: fertility, forecasting, Generation and Gender Survey, ideals, Nordic countries

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Julia Hellstrand & Emil Simonsen & Lisbeth Trille Gylling Loft & Laust H. Mortensen, 2022. "Research note: comparing ideal family size with observed and forecasted completed cohort fertility in Denmark and Norway," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-031, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-031
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-031.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ann-Zofie Duvander & Trude Lappegård & Synøve N. Andersen & Ólöf Garðarsdóttir & Gerda Neyer & Ida Viklund, 2019. "Parental leave policies and continued childbearing in Iceland, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(51), pages 1501-1528.
    2. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 473-520, April.
    3. Gunnar Andersson & Marit Rønsen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Trude Lappegård & Gerda Neyer & Kari Skrede & Kathrin Teschner & Andres Vikat, 2009. "Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(14), pages 313-352.
    4. Gunnar Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176.
    5. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Correction to: Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 521-521, April.
    6. Kateryna Savelieva & Natalie Nitsche & Venla Berg & Anneli Miettinen & Anna Rotkirch & Markus Jokela, 2021. "Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Gøsta Esping-Andersen & Francesco C. Billari, 2015. "Re-theorizing Family Demographics," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 1-31, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first-birth decline in Finland since 2010?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2021. "Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 913-964, December.
    3. Nicholas Campisi & Hill Kulu & Júlia Mikolai & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "A spatial perspective on the Nordic fertility decline: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Ari Klængur Jónsson, 2017. "Childbearing trends in Iceland, 1982–2013: Fertility timing, quantum, and gender preferences for children in a Nordic context," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(7), pages 147-188.
    5. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 191-221, May.
    6. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Lisbeth Loft, 2022. "The importance of child characteristics: children’s health and mothers’ subsequent childbearing," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 599-616, December.
    8. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    9. Livia Sz. Oláh & Rudolf Richter & Irena Kotowska, 2023. "Introduction to the Special Collection on The new roles of women and men and implications for families and societies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(29), pages 849-866.
    10. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Raffaele Guetto & Maria Francesca Morabito & Daniele Vignoli & Matthias Vollbracht, 2021. "Media Coverage of the Economy and Fertility," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    12. Benoît Laplante, 2024. "Policy and Fertility, a Case Study of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-34, June.
    13. Ann-Zofie Duvander & Trude Lappegård & Synøve N. Andersen & Ólöf Garðarsdóttir & Gerda Neyer & Ida Viklund, 2019. "Parental leave policies and continued childbearing in Iceland, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(51), pages 1501-1528.
    14. Arnstein Aassve & Letizia Mencarini & Elena Pirani & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "The last bastion is falling: Survey evidence of the new demographic reality in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2023_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Marit Rønsen & Kari Skrede, 2010. "Can public policies sustain fertility in the Nordic countries?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(13), pages 321-346.
    16. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    17. Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Taryn A. Galloway, 2023. "Universal Transfers, Tax Breaks and Fertility: Evidence from a Regional Reform in Norway," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-32, June.
    18. Manuel Carlos Nogueira & Mara Madaleno, 2021. "Is the Aurora Borealis an Inspiration to the Performance of Nordic Economic Sustainability?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Kryštof Zeman, 2018. "Cohort fertility and educational expansion in the Czech Republic during the 20th century," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(56), pages 1699-1732.
    20. Johan Dahlberg, 2015. "Social Background and Becoming a Parent in Sweden: A Register-Based Study of the Effect of Social Background on Childbearing in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 417-444, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Denmark; Norway;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.