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The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results

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  • Ulrich Pfister
  • Georg Fertig

Abstract

The paper presents the project of an aggregative reconstruction of the population of Ger-many from the sixteenth century to 1840, when official statistics began to provide complete coverage of all German states. The creation of estimates of population size and of annual series of the crude birth, marriage and death rates rests on three types of sources: First, pairs of partial censuses of hearths, taxpayers, communicants, etc. for the same regional aggregate at two different points in time are used to derive annual growth rates of popula-tion. This information is used to derive approximate estimates of total population size in ten-year intervals. Second, to develop aggregate series of vital events the project aims to analyse approximately 450 to 600 parish registers. Third, the project makes use of proto-statistical material on population size and the number of vital events that states began to collect selectively from c. 1740. On the basis of material from Gehrmann (2000), from published studies on c. 140 parishes and from selected other sources we construct a pre-liminary dataset for the period 1730–1840. Our cumulative rates of natural increase are broadly consistent with independent estimates of population growth. We use these series for two explorative analyses: First, on the basis of inverse projection we generate tentative estimates of the gross reproduction rate, of life expectancy and the dependency ratio. The results suggest an increase of the life expectancy and of the dependency ratio, the latter being the result of persistent population growth. Second, by adding a real wage series we study Malthusian adaptation with two methods, namely, VAR and time varying cumulated lag regression. The results consistently suggest the presence of both the preventive and the positive check during the eighteenth century. Whereas the preventive check persisted into the nineteenth century, mortality became exogenous in the early nineteenth century. Par-ticularly the 1810s turn out as a period of major change in at least three dimensions: real wages increased, life expectancies rose, and the positive check disappeared. Thus, Germany became a non-Malthusian economy well before the advent of industrialisation. Additional information suggests that market integration was a driving force behind this process.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2010. "The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-035
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-035
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2020. "How Cliometrics has Infiltrated Economics – and Helped to Improve the Discipline," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 54(1), pages 219-230, June.
    2. Jensen, Peter Sandholt & Pedersen, Maja Uhre & Radu, Cristina Victoria & Sharp, Paul Richard, 2022. "Arresting the Sword of Damocles: The transition to the post-Malthusian era in Denmark," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. repec:zbw:iamodp:178686 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Paolo Malanima, 2018. "Italy in the Renaissance: a leading economy in the European context, 1350–1550," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(1), pages 3-30, February.
    5. Ulrich Pfister & Jana Riedel & Martin Uebele, 2012. "Real Wages and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth in Germany, 16th to 19th Centuries," Working Papers 0017, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Kopsidis, Michael & Bromley, Daniel W., 2014. "The French Revolution and German industrialization: The new institutional economics rewrites history," IAMO Discussion Papers 149, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    7. Alan Fernihough & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2018. "Population and Poverty in Ireland on the Eve of the Great Famine," Working Papers 201820, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    8. Edvinsson, Rodney, 2015. "Pre-industrial population and economic growth: Was there a Malthusian mechanism in Sweden?," Stockholm Papers in Economic History 17, Stockholm University, Department of Economic History.
    9. Alan Fernihough, 2013. "Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 311-332, February.
    10. Lüger, Tim, 2018. "A VAR evaluation of classical growth theory," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 231, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    11. Michael Kopsidis & Ulrich Pfister, 2013. "Agricultural development during early industrialization in a low-wage economy: Saxony, c. 1790-1830," Working Papers 0039, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    12. Martin Uebele & Daniel Gallardo-Albarr�n, 2015. "Paving the way to modernity: Prussian roads and grain market integration in Westphalia, 1821-1855," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(1), pages 69-92, March.
    13. Marc Klemp & Niels Framroze Møller, 2016. "Post-Malthusian Dynamics in Pre-Industrial Scandinavia," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(4), pages 841-867, October.
    14. Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2020. "A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1192, June.
    15. Nuno Palma & Jaime Reis & Mengtian Zhang, 2020. "Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 11-27, January.
    16. Fochesato, Mattia, 2018. "Origins of Europe’s north-south divide: Population changes, real wages and the ‘little divergence’ in early modern Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-131.
    17. Peter Sandholt Jensen & Maja Uhre Pedersen & Cristina Victoria Radu & Paul Richard Sharp, 2020. "Arresting the Sword of Damocles: Dating the Transition to the Post-Malthusian Era in Denmark," Working Papers 0182, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    18. Ulrich Pfister, 2020. "Urban population in Germany, 1500 - 1850," CQE Working Papers 9020, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    19. Robert Stelter & David de la Croix & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Leaders And Laggards In Life Expectancy Among European Scholars From The Sixteenth To The Early Twentieth Century," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    20. Ulrich Pfister & Michael Kopsidis, 2015. "Institutions versus demand: determinants of agricultural development in Saxony, 1660–1850," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 275-293.
    21. Seung‐hun Chung & Mark D. Partridge, 2021. "De facto power of elites and regional growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 169-202, February.
    22. Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2020. "From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1170, June.
    23. Rodney Benjamin Edvinsson, 2017. "The response of vital rates to harvest fluctuations in pre-industrial Sweden," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(2), pages 245-268, May.
    24. Volckart, Oliver, 2018. "The dear old holy Roman realm. How does it hold together? Monetary policies, cross-cutting cleavages and political cohesion in the age of reformation," Economic History Working Papers 90503, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany; history; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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