IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2005-026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evidence of recent fertility decline in Eritrea: an analysis of trends and determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Gebremariam Woldemicael

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

This paper contributes to an improved understanding of the recent fertility decline in Eritrea and the possible factors underlying it. Based on data from the 2002 Eritrea Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), it offers increased clarity as to whether the recent decline indicates the onset of a long-term fertility transition or if it is merely a short-term response to the border conflict with Ethiopia (mid-1998-2000). Various methods, including period trend analyses by age and parity, cohort fertility analysis, and multivariate statistical methods, are used to assess the extent of the decline and to identify major contributors to it. The evidence from this study indicates that fertility decline has started in Eritrea and that it has occurred in urban and rural areas, and in every region of the country. The decline is evident across all reproductive ages and birth orders, but is stronger among older mothers and for higher-order births. A prolonged spacing of births, cessation of further childbearing, and delayed age at marriage are the main contributors to the overall fertility decline. The study also reveals that the fertility decline started in the mid-1990s, well before the conflict, but it was faster during the peak years of the border conflict (1999-2000). This suggests that the reduction in fertility is not primarily an outcome of the border conflict (nor a temporary phenomenon), but that it might be the beginning of a long-term fertility transition, which was then accelerated by the border war and the associated social and economic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebremariam Woldemicael, 2005. "Evidence of recent fertility decline in Eritrea: an analysis of trends and determinants," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-026
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karen Mason, 1997. "Explaining fertility transitions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(4), pages 443-454, November.
    2. David Lindstrom & Betemariam Berhanu, 1999. "The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in ethiopia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(2), pages 247-261, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael R. Haines & Avery M. Guest, 2010. "Fertility in New York State in the Civil War Era," NBER Working Papers 16135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bove, Vincenzo & Di Salvatore, Jessica & Elia, Leandro & Nisticò, Roberto, 2024. "Mothers at peace: International peacebuilding and post-conflict fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Shoumitro Chatterjee & Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run," Working Papers sc_tv_growth_fertility.pd, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    4. Marion Mercier & Rama Lionel Ngenzebuke & Philip Verwimp, 2016. "Violence exposure and welfare over time: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," HiCN Working Papers 198 updated, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
    6. Apsara Karki Nepal & Martin Halla & Steven Stillman, 2018. "Violent Conflict and the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff," Economics working papers 2018-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Jeremy R. Porter, 2012. "Cultural vs. Economic: Re-Visiting the Determinants of Fertility at a Sub-National Level in the U.S, 1990 - 2000," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 2(6), pages 91-108, November.
    8. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Ziga Cepar, 2010. "Higher Education in Slovenia: Analysis of Demand," UPP Monograph Series, University of Primorska Press, number 978-961-6832-03-8.
    10. Andrés F. Castro Torres, 2020. "Analysis of Latin American fertility change in terms of probable social classes," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Philip Verwimp & Davide Osti & Gudrun Østby, 2020. "Forced Displacement, Migration, and Fertility in Burundi," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(2), pages 287-319, June.
    12. Olga Shemyakina, 2013. "Patterns in Female Age at First Marriage and Tajik Armed Conflict [Les évolutions de l’âge des femmes au premier mariage et le conflit armé Tadjike]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 303-343, August.
    13. Abdullah, Muhammad & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ali, Amjad & Shoukat, Ayza, 2013. "Co-Integration Between Fertility and Human Development Indicators: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 49134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 386-398, May.
    15. Rodrigo R. Soares & Bruno L. S. Falcão, 2008. "The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(6), pages 1058-1104, December.
    16. Chen, Yuyu & Zhou, Li-An, 2007. "The long-term health and economic consequences of the 1959-1961 famine in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 659-681, July.
    17. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    18. Andrés Felipe Castro Torres, 2021. "Analysis of Latin American Fertility in Terms of Probable Social Classes," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 297-339, April.
    19. Lívia Madeira Triaca & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro & César Augusto Oviedo Tejada, 2021. "Mosquitoes, birth rates and regional spillovers: Evidence from the Zika epidemic in Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 795-813, June.
    20. Nicholas Campisi & Hill Kulu & Júlia Mikolai & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "A spatial perspective on the Nordic fertility decline: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eritrea; fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.