IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dar/wpaper/35713.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crude Oil Price Determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Möbert, Jochen

Abstract

Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher prices. The results also question OPEC’s market power.

Suggested Citation

  • Möbert, Jochen, 2007. "Crude Oil Price Determinants," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35713, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:35713
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/35713/
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32075/1/541680129.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Bahram Adrangi & A. Chatrath & Frank Song & Ferenc Szidarovszky, 2006. "Petroleum spreads and the term structure of futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(16), pages 1917-1929.
    3. Balabanoff, Stefan, 1995. "Oil futures prices and stock management A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 205-210, July.
    4. Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
    5. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2004. "The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 135-160, January.
    6. Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
    7. Anne-Marie Brook & Robert Price & Douglas Sutherland & Niels Westerlund & Christophe André, 2004. "Oil Price Developments: Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 412, OECD Publishing.
    8. Kaufmann, Robert K., 1995. "A model of the world oil market for project LINK Integrating economics, geology and politics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-178, April.
    9. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    10. Robert Bacon & Silvana Tordo, 2004. "Crude Oil Prices : Predicting Price Differentials Based on Quality," World Bank Publications - Reports 11250, The World Bank Group.
    11. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
    12. Tvedt, Jostein, 2002. "The effect of uncertainty and aggregate investments on crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 615-628, November.
    13. Watkins, G.C., 2006. "Oil scarcity: What have the past three decades revealed?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 508-514, March.
    14. Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
    15. Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
    16. Asano, Hirokatsu, 2002. "An empirical analysis of lumpy investment: the case of US petroleum refining industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 629-645, November.
    17. Philip Hans Franses & Bart Hobijn, 1997. "Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-48.
    18. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
    19. Foster, Andrew J., 1996. "Price discovery in oil markets: a time varying analysis of the 1990-1991 Gulf conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 231-246, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wajdi Hamza Dawod Alredany, 2018. "A Regression Analysis of Determinants Affecting Crude Oil Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 110-119.
    2. Ekins, Paul & Pollitt, Hector & Barton, Jennifer & Blobel, Daniel, 2011. "The implications for households of environmental tax reform (ETR) in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2472-2485.
    3. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    4. Dacio Villarreal-Samaniego, 2021. "The dynamics of oil prices, COVID-19, and exchange rates in five emerging economies in the atypical first quarter of 2020," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(158), pages 17-27, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Möbert, Jochen, 2007. "Crude oil price determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
    3. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    4. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    5. Mario Denni & G. Frewer, 2006. "New evidence on the relationship beetween crude oil and petroleum product prices," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0061, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    6. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    7. Liu, Qingfu & Tu, Anthony H., 2012. "Jump spillovers in energy futures markets: Implications for diversification benefits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1447-1464.
    8. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
    9. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
    10. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Spatial crude oil production divergence and crude oil price behaviour in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Haugom, Erik & Mydland, Ørjan & Pichler, Alois, 2016. "Long term oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-94.
    12. Du, Xiaodong & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "The impact of ethanol production on US and regional gasoline markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3227-3234, August.
    13. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
    14. Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson, 2008. "Testing for Energy Market Integration in China," Working Papers in Economics 08/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    15. Storhas, Dominik P. & De Mello, Lurion & Singh, Abhay Kumar, 2020. "Multiscale lead-lag relationships in oil and refined product return dynamics: A symbolic wavelet transfer entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Matteo Manera & Chiara Longo & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," Working Papers 2007.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    18. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    19. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
    20. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:35713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dekanatssekretariat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivthdde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.