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Petroleum spreads and the term structure of futures prices

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  • Bahram Adrangi
  • A. Chatrath
  • Frank Song
  • Ferenc Szidarovszky

Abstract

We employ the term structure of gasoline and heating oil prices, proxied by convenience yields, to explain the variation in the spread between the prices of gasoline and crude oil and the prices of heating oil and crude oil. We demonstrate that the marginal convenience yields in the gasoline and heating oil markets explained much of the variation in the spreads between 1986 and 1999. The evidence indicates the importance of a disaggregated treatment of the term structure of prices: the convenience yield is found to explain a substantially higher amount of the variation in the spread when it is decomposed by maturity, even after controls for seasonality and inventory levels are implemented. These findings support the notion that the futures term structure contains information beyond what can be garnered via obvious or easily available proxies of current supply and demand. The findings are also supported in an alternate specification that tests for the origins of information spillover (leadership) between the commodities: it is demonstrated that decomposed convenience yields explain a substantial portion of the volatility spillover from the gasoline and heating oil markets to the crude market.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Adrangi & A. Chatrath & Frank Song & Ferenc Szidarovszky, 2006. "Petroleum spreads and the term structure of futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(16), pages 1917-1929.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:16:p:1917-1929
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500427189
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    2. Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2018. "Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 203-213, June.
    3. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
    4. Möbert, Jochen, 2007. "Crude oil price determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, January.
    6. Möbert, Jochen, 2007. "Crude Oil Price Determinants," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35713, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

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