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Long-Run Sectoral Development: Time Series Evidence for the German Economy

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  • Krüger, Jens
  • Dietrich, Andreas

Abstract

In economic development, long-run structural change among the three main sectors of an economy follows a typical pattern with the primary sector (agriculture, mining) first dominating, followed by the secondary sector (manufacturing) and finally by the tertiary sector (services) in terms of employment and value added. We reconsider the verbal theoretical work of Fourastié and build a simple model encompassing its main features, most notably the macroeconomic influences on the sectoral development. Estimation and analysis with German data for the period 1850-2001 show that this model is quite capable to replicate the empirical facts.
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  • Krüger, Jens & Dietrich, Andreas, 2008. "Long-Run Sectoral Development: Time Series Evidence for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 34398, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:34398
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/34398/
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    Cited by:

    1. Reza Farrahi Moghaddam & Fereydoun Farrahi Moghaddam & Mohamed Cheriet, 2014. "A Multi-Entity Input Output (MEIO) Approach to Sustainability - Water-Energy-GHG (WEG) Footprint Statements in Use Cases from Auto and Telco Industries," Papers 1404.6227, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
    2. Dietrich, Andreas & Krüger, Jens, 2010. "Numerical Explorations of the Ngai-Pissarides Model of Growth and Structural Change," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 46865, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    4. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2011. "The Impact of Mining and Services Industries on the Structural Change of Australia," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(2), pages 35-51, August.
    5. Nikolay Peykov, 2021. "Sectoral Output Gaps – Estimates for Bulgaria," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 5-26, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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