IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cyb/wpaper/2022-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the Mortgage Default Probability in Cyprus: Evidence using micro data

Author

Listed:
  • Savvas Antoniou

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Ioanna Evangelou

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Theodosis Kallenos

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Nektarios A. Michail

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

Abstract

As financial institutions are exposed to the mortgage market, the identification of the characteristics associated with high default risk is crucial for the economy’s financial stability and growth. In this paper, we examine for the determinants of mortgage default for households, using both their economic and socio-demographic characteristics. Using panel data from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey from 2009 to 2017, we find that the mortgage debt service to income ratio, as well as the debt to total household wealth ratio, are positively related with a higher mortgage default probability. In addition, salaried employment reduces such probability and households with more than four members are more prone to mortgage arrears.

Suggested Citation

  • Savvas Antoniou & Ioanna Evangelou & Theodosis Kallenos & Nektarios A. Michail, 2022. "Estimating the Mortgage Default Probability in Cyprus: Evidence using micro data," Working Papers 2022-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    • Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2022-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbank.cy/images/media/pdf/Estimating-the-Mortgage-Default-Probability-in%20Cyprus-Evidence-using-micro-data.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    2. Neil Bhutta & Jane K. Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Seán Lyons, 2018. "Determinants of mortgage arrears in Europe: evidence from household microdata," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 545-567, October.
    5. Nektarios A. Michail & Ioanna Evangelou & Rozmari Hadjicharalambous, 2020. "Income and Wealth Inequality in Cyprus: Empirical evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 14(2), pages 50-60, December.
    6. Patrick Royston, 2004. "Multiple imputation of missing values," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 227-241, September.
    7. Ciochetti, Brian A. & Deng, Yongheng & Lee, Gail & Shilling, James D. & Yao, Rui, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July.
    8. Connor, Gregory & Flavin, Thomas, 2015. "Strategic, unaffordability and dual-trigger default in the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 59-75.
    9. Nektarios Michail & Agorasti Patronidou & Ioanna Evangelou, 2021. "Does Household Behaviour Depend on Monetary Policy? Evidence from Cyprus," Working Papers 2021-01, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    10. Sónia Costa, 2012. "Households’ Default Probability: An Analysis Based on the Results of the HFCS," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Seán Lyons, 2018. "Determinants of mortgage arrears in Europe: evidence from household microdata," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 545-567, October.
    12. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    13. Dániel Holló & Mónika Papp, 2008. "Assessing household credit risk: evidence from a household survey," MNB Occasional Papers 2008/70, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Haliassos, Michael & Bertaut, Carol C, 1995. "Why Do So Few Hold Stocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1110-1129, September.
    15. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Felipe Martínez & Rodrigo Cifuentes & Carlos Madeira & Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, 2013. "Measurement of Household Financial Risk with the Survey of Household Finances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 682, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Campbell, Tim S & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1983. "The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1569-1581, December.
    18. Vandell, Kerry D, 1978. "Default Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1279-1296, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyriaki G. Louka & Nektarios A. Michail, 2022. "Missed Payments, Renegotiations, and Household Consumption," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 20(1), pages 31-50.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Okechukwu D. Anyamele, 2018. "Racial Ethnic differences in Household Loan Delinquency Rate in recent financial crisis: Evidence from 2007 and 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-4.
    2. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Yusuf VARLI & Gökhan ÖVENÇ, 2019. "Dynamic Analysis of Defaults and Prepayments in the Turkish Mortgage Market," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    4. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    5. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 141-159, September.
    6. Anil Kumar, 2018. "Do Restrictions on Home Equity Extraction Contribute to Lower Mortgage Defaults? Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity at the Texas Border," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 268-297, February.
    7. Steven Laufer, 2018. "Equity Extraction and Mortgage Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 1-33, April.
    8. Andersson, Fredrik & Mayock, Tom, 2014. "How does home equity affect mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-39.
    9. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    10. Chauvet, Marcelle & Gabriel, Stuart & Lutz, Chandler, 2016. "Mortgage default risk: New evidence from internet search queries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 91-111.
    11. Yosi Borochov & Boris A. Portnov, 2021. "Estimating Environmentally Adjusted Risks of Mortgage Arrears for Different Socioeconomic Groups of Borrowers," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 595-620.
    12. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    13. Dendramis, Y. & Tzavalis, E. & Adraktas, G., 2018. "Credit risk modelling under recessionary and financially distressed conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 160-175.
    14. Kyle Herkenhoff & Lee Ohanian, 2019. "The Impact of Foreclosure Delay on U.S. Employment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 63-83, January.
    15. Stefano Colonnello & Mariela Dal Borgo, 2024. "Raising Household Leverage: Evidence from Co-Financed Mortgages," Working Papers 2024: 01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    16. Tomáš Želinský & Martina Mysíková & Thesia I. Garner, 2022. "Trends in Subjective Income Poverty Rates in the European Union," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2493-2516, October.
    17. Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
    18. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, September.
    19. Eriksen, Michael D. & Fout, Hamilton B. & Palim, Mark & Rosenblatt, Eric, 2019. "The influence of contract prices and relationships on appraisal bias," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 132-143.
    20. Lok Man Michel Tong & Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Modelling Competitive Mortgage Termination Option Strategies: Default vs Restructuring and Prepayment vs Defeasance," ERES eres2018_300, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurosystem HFCS; survey; defaults; probability; households;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2022-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Markidou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbcgvcy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.