IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1944.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013

Author

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the effects of the fall in financial and housing wealth in 2008-2009 on overall macroeconomic activity. These effects are large and account for a large fraction of the slowdown in activity. Much of the 2008-2009 recession is estimated to be simply standard wealth effects at work.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2014. "The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d19/d1944.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    3. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    8. Duygan-Bump, Burcu & Levkov, Alexey & Montoriol-Garriga, Judit, 2015. "Financing constraints and unemployment: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 89-105.
    9. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    10. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Jul), pages 29-51.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 2014. "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1974, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2017. "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008–2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 495-523, March.
    3. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2020. "Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers," IZA Discussion Papers 13000, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    7. Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Does more finance lead to longer crises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-135, January.
    8. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Credit contractions and unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 573-593.
    9. Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2017. "Capital injection to banks versus debt relief to households," IMFS Working Paper Series 111, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Thomas Hintermaier & Winfried Koeniger, 2018. "Household debt and crises of confidence," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1489-1542, November.
    12. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2249-2285, May.
    13. Tatjana Ptasica, 2021. "The Impact Of Financial Stabilization Policies On The Level Of Non-Performing Loans: Problems And Contradictions (The Case Of Cyprus)," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 7(5).
    14. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Ragnar Nymoen & Kari Pedersen & Jon Ivar Sjåberg, 2019. "Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, May.
    16. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2022. "Financial Intermediation and the Economy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2022-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    17. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
    18. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    19. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "Financial Crises: Past Lessons and Policy Implications," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 668, OECD Publishing.
    20. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Wealth effects;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.