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Decoupling Markets and Individuals: Rational Expectations Equilibrium Outcomes from Information Dissemination among Boundedly-Rational Traders

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Abstract

Attainment of rational expectations equilibria in asset markets calls for the price system to disseminate traders� private information to others. It is known that markets populated by asymmetrically-informed profit-motivated human traders can converge to rational expectations equilibria. This paper reports comparable market outcomes when human traders are replaced by boundedly-rational algorithmic agents who use a simple means-end heuristic. These algorithmic agents lack the capability to optimize; yet outcomes of markets populated by them converge near the equilibrium derived from optimization assumptions. These findings suggest that market structure is an important determinant of efficient aggregate level outcomes, and that care is necessary not to overstate the importance of human cognition and conscious optimization in such contexts.

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  • Karim Jamal & Michael Maier & Shyam Sunder, 2012. "Decoupling Markets and Individuals: Rational Expectations Equilibrium Outcomes from Information Dissemination among Boundedly-Rational Traders," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1868, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1868
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d18/d1868.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    2. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1982. "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 663-698, August.
    3. Smith,Vernon L., 2009. "Rationality in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521133388, September.
    4. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
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    6. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    7. Dhananjay K. Gode & Shyam Sunder, 1997. "What Makes Markets Allocationally Efficient?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 603-630.
    8. Thaler, Richard H, 1986. "The Psychology and Economics Conference Handbook: Comments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 279-284, October.
    9. Huber, Jürgen & Shubik, Martin & Sunder, Shyam, 2014. "Sufficiency of an outside bank and a default penalty to support the value of fiat money: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 317-337.
    10. Forsythe, Robert & Lundholm, Russell, 1990. "Information Aggregation in an Experimental Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 309-347, March.
    11. Huber, Juergen & Shubik, Martin & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Three Minimal Market Institutions: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 27, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    12. Martin Angerer & Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder, 2010. "An economy with personal currency: theory and experimental evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 475-509, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huber, Juergen & Shubik, Martin & Sunder, Shyam, 2016. "Default penalty as a selection mechanism among multiple equilibria," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 20-38.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bounded rationality; Dissemination of asymmetric information; Efficiency of security markets; Minimally-rational agents; Rational expectations; Structural properties of markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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