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Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty

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  • Markandya, Anil
  • Pemberton, Malcolm

Abstract

The paper develops a framework to analyze energy security in an expected utility framework, where there is a risk of disruption of imported energy. The analysis shows the importance of an energy tax as a tool in maximizing expected utility, and how the level of that tax varies according to the key parameters of the system: risk aversion, probability of disruption, demand elasticity and cost of disruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Markandya, Anil & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2010. "Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1609-1613, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1609-1613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abada, Ibrahim & Massol, Olivier, 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4077-4088, July.
    2. Ibrahim Abada & Olivier Massol, 2010. "Security of supply in the European Gas Market A model-based analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-13, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:47-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Arthur Thomas & Olivier Massol & Benoît Sévi, 2019. "How are day-ahead prices informative for predicting the next day’s consumption of natural gas?," Post-Print hal-04319396, HAL.
    5. Tang, Xu & Snowden, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 418-428.
    6. Xavier Labandeira & Baltazar Manzano, 2012. "Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 47-64.
    7. Sascha Samadi, 2017. "The Social Costs of Electricity Generation—Categorising Different Types of Costs and Evaluating Their Respective Relevance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-37, March.
    8. repec:cty:dpaper:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.043 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sandrine Mathy & Patrick Criqui & Katharina Knoop & Manfred Fischedick & Sascha Samadi, 2016. "Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 47-62, June.
    10. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    11. Siqi Li & Rongrong Li, 2017. "Energy Sustainability Evaluation Model Based on the Matter-Element Extension Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-9, November.
    12. Webster, Allan & Ayatakshi, Sukanya, 2013. "The effect of fossil energy and other environmental taxes on profit incentives for change in an open economy: Evidence from the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1422-1431.
    13. Baltasar Manzano & Luis Rey, 2012. "The Welfare Cost of Energy Insecurity," Working Papers fa07-2012, Economics for Energy.
    14. Dennis Dreier & Mark Howells, 2019. "OSeMOSYS-PuLP: A Stochastic Modeling Framework for Long-Term Energy Systems Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, April.
    15. Iskin, Ibrahim & Daim, Tugrul & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Altuntas, Mehmet, 2012. "Exploring renewable energy pricing with analytic network process — Comparing a developed and a developing economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891.
    16. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Zeng, Shouzhen & Streimikiene, Dalia & Baležentis, Tomas, 2017. "Review of and comparative assessment of energy security in Baltic States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 185-192.
    18. De Rosa, Mattia & Gainsford, Kenneth & Pallonetto, Fabiano & Finn, Donal P., 2022. "Diversification, concentration and renewability of the energy supply in the European Union," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    19. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    20. repec:cty:dpaper:1458 is not listed on IDEAS

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