IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvir/2000017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous Versus Exogenous Growth Facing a Fertility Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Medeiros, João

    (European Commission, Directorate General of Economic and Financial Affairs)

Abstract

This paper simulates the impact of a permanent fertility shock on economic growth, using endogenous versus exogenous growth OLG models. An endogenous growth model, with education as the engine of growth, dampens the negative impact of a decline in fertility on growth when compared with an exogenous growth model. This result stems from the rise in education levels brought about by the expectation of an increase in the discounted value of labour earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Medeiros, João, 2000. "Endogenous Versus Exogenous Growth Facing a Fertility Shock," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2000017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2000-17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ketil Hviding & Marcel Mérette, 1998. "Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms in The Context of Ageing Populations: Overlapping Generations Model Simulations for Seven OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 201, OECD Publishing.
    2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    4. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 2, pages 17-56, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    6. K. Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 1999. "The economic consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 138, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    8. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
    9. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    10. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 352-352.
    11. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 1997. "QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 123, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Patterson, Kerry D & Pesaran, Bahram, 1992. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution in Consumption in the United States and the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 573-584, November.
    13. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    14. Evans, Paul, 1991. "Is Ricardian Equivalence a Good Approximation?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 626-644, October.
    15. Gary S. Becker, 1975. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, Second Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck75-1.
    16. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    2. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002. "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
    3. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    4. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 607-668, September.
    5. Chaitali Sinha, 2014. "Human Capital and Public Policy," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(1), pages 79-125, June.
    6. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2022. "Is schooling the same as learning? – The impact of the learning-adjusted years of schooling on growth in a dynamic panel data framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    8. Kostakis, Ioannis & Lolos, Sarantis & Doulgeraki, Charikleia, 2020. "Cultural Heritage led Growth: Regional evidence from Greece (1998-2016)," MPRA Paper 98443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Echevarría Olave, Cruz Ángel & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    10. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.
    11. Peter J. Stauvermann & Ronald R. Kumar, 2016. "Sustainability of A Pay-as-you-Go Pension System in A Small Open Economy with Ageing, Human Capital and Endogenous Fertility," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 2-20, February.
    12. Eric A. Hanushek & Victor Lavy & Kohtaro Hitomi, 2008. "Do Students Care about School Quality? Determinants of Dropout Behavior in Developing Countries," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 69-105.
    13. Siskova, M. & Kuhn, M. & Prettner, K. & Prskawetz, A., 2023. "Does human capital compensate for population decline?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Ben Fine, 1998. "Endogenous Growth Theory: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 80, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    15. Sylwia Zajączkowska-Jakimiak, 2006. "Wiedza techniczna i kapitał ludzki w teorii wzrostu gospodarczego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 47-69.
    16. Bala, Venkatesh & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "The evolution of human capital in an interacting agent economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 85-108, July.
    17. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2016. "Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc [Ageing and pension reform. A computational olg model for Morocco]," MPRA Paper 74077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Suri, Tavneet & Boozer, Michael A. & Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances, 2011. "Paths to Success: The Relationship Between Human Development and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 506-522, April.
    19. Le Van, Cuong & Luong, Thai Bao & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Nguyen, Tu-Anh, 2010. "New Technology, Human Capital and Growth for a Developing Country," LERNA Working Papers 10.22.328, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    20. Goodfriend, Marvin & McDermott, John, 1995. "Early Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 116-133, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human capital; education; fertility; endogenous growth; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2000017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Virginie LEBLANC (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.