IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/werepe/2822.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian long-run prediction in time series models

Author

Listed:
  • Koop, Gary
  • Osiewalski, Jacek
  • Steel, Mark F.J.

Abstract

This paper considers Bayesian long-run prediction in time series models. We allow time series to exhibit stationary or non-stationary behavior and show how differences between prior structures which have little effect on posterior inferences can have a large effect in a prediction exercise. In particular, the Jeffreys' prior given in Phillips (1991) is seen to prevent the existence of one-period ahead predictive moments. A Bayesian counterpart is provided to Sampson (1991) who takes parameter uncertainty into account in a classical framework. An empirical example illustrates our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F.J., 1992. "Bayesian long-run prediction in time series models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2822, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:2822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/cbcff82a-cd41-4620-a718-55fb23b00c95/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koop, Gary & Steel, Mark F J, 1994. "A Decision-Theoretic Analysis of the Unit-Root Hypothesis Using Mixtures of Elliptical Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107, January.
    2. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Thompson, Patrick A & Miller, Robert B, 1986. "Sampling the Future: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting from Univariate Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(4), pages 427-436, October.
    4. Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1993. "Robust bayesian inference in elliptical regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 345-363.
    5. Fuller, Wayne A. & Hasza, David P., 1980. "Predictors for the first-order autoregressive process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 139-157, June.
    6. DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991. "The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June.
    7. J.‐P. Florens & M. Mouchart, 1985. "Conditioning In Dynamic Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 15-34, January.
    8. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August.
    9. Sampson, Michael, 1991. "The Effect of Parameter Uncertainty on Forecast Variances and Confidence Intervals for Unit Root and Trend Stationary Time-Series Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 67-76, Jan.-Marc.
    10. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
    11. Florens, J.-P. & Mouchart, M., 1985. "Conditioning in dynamic models," LIDAM Reprints CORE 624, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Dreze, Jacques H., 1977. "Bayesian regression analysis using poly-t densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 329-354, November.
    13. Chow, Gregory C, 1973. "Multiperiod Predictions from Stochastic Difference Equations by Bayesian Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 109-118, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koop, Gary & Steel, Mark F J, 1994. "A Decision-Theoretic Analysis of the Unit-Root Hypothesis Using Mixtures of Elliptical Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107, January.
    2. Vaneet Bhatia & Sankarshan Basu & Subrata Kumar Mitra & Pradyumna Dash, 2018. "A review of bank efficiency and productivity," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 55(3), pages 557-600, November.
    3. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
    4. Alexander Vosseler & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Forecasting seasonal time series data: a Bayesian model averaging approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1733-1765, December.
    5. Sylvia Kaufmann & Johann Scharler, 2013. "Bank-Lending Standards, Loan Growth and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2013-34, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:164:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lubrano, Michel, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in a Bayesian framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-109, September.
    9. K. M. Matawie & A. Assaf, 2010. "Bayesian and DEA efficiency modelling: an application to hospital foodservice operations," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 945-953.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koop, Gary & Steel, Mark F J, 1994. "A Decision-Theoretic Analysis of the Unit-Root Hypothesis Using Mixtures of Elliptical Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107, January.
    2. Marriott, John & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "The strength of evidence for unit autoregressive roots and structural breaks: A Bayesian perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Marcet, Albert & Jarociński, Marek, 2010. "Autoregressions in small samples, priors about observables and initial conditions," Working Paper Series 1263, European Central Bank.
    4. Magris Martin & Iosifidis Alexandros, 2021. "Approximate Bayes factors for unit root testing," Papers 2102.10048, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    5. Hoek, Henk & Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Herman K., 1995. "Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 27-59, September.
    6. Loukia Meligkotsidou & Elias Tzavalis & Ioannis D. Vrontos, 2004. "A Bayesian Analysis of Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in the Level and the Error Variance of Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 514, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Koop, Gary & Dijk, Herman K. Van, 2000. "Testing for integration using evolving trend and seasonals models: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 261-291, August.
    8. Lubrano, Michel, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in a Bayesian framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-109, September.
    9. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    10. Michel Mouchart & Renzo Orsi, 2016. "Building a Structural Model: Parameterization and Structurality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Feve, Frederique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2012. "Estimation of conditional ranks and tests of exogeneity in nonparametric nonseparable models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2012036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    12. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Chaturvedi, Anoop & Lacroix, Guy, 2022. "Robust Dynamic Space-Time Panel Data Models Using ?-Contamination: An Application to Crop Yields and Climate Change," IZA Discussion Papers 15815, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 327-357.
    14. Mouchart, Michel & Russo, Federica & Wunsch, Guillaume, 2011. "Inferring causal relations by modelling structures : Article de recherche," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    15. Kim, Jae & Choi, In, 2015. "Unit Roots in Economic and Financial Time Series: A Re-Evaluation based on Enlightened Judgement," MPRA Paper 68411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1000, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. Kleibergen, F.R. & Hoek, H., 1995. "Bayesian analysis of ARMA models using noninformative priors," Other publications TiSEM 81684a10-935f-49c4-b5ab-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Grassi, S. & Proietti, T., 2014. "Characterising economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 359-374.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    20. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit root;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:2822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eco.uc3m.es/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.