IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctc/serie1/def086.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Bordignon

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Matteo Gamalerio
  • Edoardo Slerca
  • Gilberto Turati

Abstract

Why do anti-immigrant political parties have more success in areas that host fewer immigrants? Using regression discontinuity design, structural breaks search methods and data from a sample of Italian municipalities, we show that the relationship between the vote shares of anti-immigrant parties and the share of immigrants follows a U-shaped curve, which exhibits a tipping-like behavior around a share of immigrants equal to 3.35 %. We estimate that the vote share of the main Italian anti-immigrant party (Lega Nord) is approximately 6 % points higher for municipalities below the threshold. Using data on local labor market characteristics and on the incomes of natives and immigrants, we provide evidence which points at the competition in the local labor market between natives and immigrants as the more plausible explanation for the electoral success of anti-immigrant parties in areas with low shares of immigrants. Alternative stories find less support in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bordignon & Matteo Gamalerio & Edoardo Slerca & Gilberto Turati, 2020. "Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def086, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/economia-finanza-def086.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell, 2018. "On the Effect of Bias Estimation on Coverage Accuracy in Nonparametric Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 767-779, April.
    2. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 61-84, February.
    3. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, And Compositional Amenities," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 78-119, February.
    4. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    5. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    6. Cristina Cattaneo & Carlo V. Fiorio & Giovanni Peri, 2015. "What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants “Take Their Jobs†?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 655-693.
    7. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    8. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Tipping and the Dynamics of Segregation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 177-218.
    9. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    10. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment—Erratum," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 624-624, August.
    11. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2007. "Educated Preferences: Explaining Attitudes Toward Immigration in Europe," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 399-442, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Federico Zampollo, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," Working Papers 6/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Basiglio, Stefania & Foresta, Alessandra & Turati, Gilberto, 2024. "Impatience and crime. Evidence from the NLSY97," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Daniele Checchi & Alessandra Fenizia & Claudio Lucifora, 2021. "PUBLIC SECTOR JOBS: Working in the public sector in Europe and the US," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def107, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Zurlinden, Noémie & Valladares-Esteban, Arnau & Gottlieb, Charles, 2020. "The Effects of Asylum Seekers on Political Outcomes," Economics Working Paper Series 2018, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Pieroni, Luca & Roig, Melcior Rosselló & Salmasi, Luca, 2023. "Italy: Immigration and the evolution of populism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2022. "Tastes for discrimination in monopsonistic labour markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Victor Ginsburgh & Sergio Perelman & Pierre Pestieau, 2021. "Populism and Social Polarization in European Democracies [Bien-Être et Vote]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(4), pages 371-404.
    8. Boitani, Andrea & Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2023. "News and narratives: A cointegration analysis of Russian economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Russell Davidson & Andrea Monticini, 2023. "Bootstrap Performance with Heteroskedasticity," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def130, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    10. Irene Torrini & Claudio Lucifora & Antonio Russo, 2022. "The Long-Term Effects of Hospitalization on Health Care Expenditures: An Empirical Analysis for the Young-Old Population," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def117, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2022. "Skill of the immigrants and vote of the natives: Immigration and nationalism in European elections 2007–2016," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Pablo Argote & Lucas Perelló, 2024. "Explaining the Impact of South-South Migration: Evidence from Chile’s Immigration Boom," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2071-2093, December.
    3. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2021. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-102, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Gonnot, Jérôme, 2022. "Taxation with representation: Understanding natives’ attitudes to foreigners’ voting rights," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda & Riccardo Puglisi, 2017. "Illegal immigration and media exposure: evidence on individual attitudes," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, December.
    6. Brunner, Beatrice & Kuhn, Andreas, 2014. "Immigration, Cultural Distance and Natives' Attitudes Towards Immigrants: Evidence from Swiss Voting Results," IZA Discussion Papers 8409, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Simone Schüller, 2016. "The Effects of 9/11 on Attitudes toward Immigration and the Moderating Role of Education," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 604-632, November.
    8. Lergetporer, Philipp & Piopiunik, Marc & Simon, Lisa, 2021. "Does the education level of refugees affect natives’ attitudes?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr, 2018. "The Effects of Immigration in Developed Countries: Insights from Recent Economic Research," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-22, CEPII research center.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Armando Miano & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023. "Immigration and Redistribution," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 1-39.
    11. Peter Huber & Doris Oberdabernig, 2015. "The Impact of Welfare Benefits on Natives' and Immigrants' Attitudes Towards Immigration. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 82," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57890.
    12. Noel Gaston & Douglas R. Nelson, 2013. "Bridging Trade Theory And Labour Econometrics: The Effects Of International Migration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 98-139, February.
    13. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2023. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2021. "Immigration and nationalism: The importance of identity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Poutvaara, Panu & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2018. "Bitterness in life and attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 471-490.
    16. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    18. Simon, Lisa & Piopiunik, Marc & Lergetporer, Philipp, 2017. "Information, perceived education level, and attitudes toward refugees: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168280, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Pascal Achard & Sigrid Suetens, 2023. "The causal effect of ethnic diversity on support for redistribution and the role of discrimination," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5), pages 1678-1696, December.
    20. van Vuuren, Aico & Kjellander, Josef & Nilsson, Viktor, 2019. "Refugees and apartment prices: A case study to investigate the attitudes of home buyers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 20-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; extreme-right parties; anti-immigrant parties; populism; tipping point; regression discontinuity design.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simone Moriconi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dscatit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.