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Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model

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  • Alberto Behar
  • Lawrence Edwards

Abstract

Elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports are estimated using a vector error correction model in order to address simultaneity and non-stationarity issues. Demand is highly price-elastic, with elasticities ranging from -3 to -6. The price elasticity of supply is generally about 1, but some estimates are as low as 0.35. Competitors’ prices and world income are important determinants of demand, but domestic capacity utilization is not an important determinant of export supply. Many different data alternatives are sourced, constructed and estimated, showing the results can be sensitive to the choice of series.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Behar & Lawrence Edwards, 2004. "Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2004-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave & Véronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2009. "The Impact of the International Economic Crisis in South Africa," Cahiers de recherche 0952, CIRPEE.
    2. Rahul Anand & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Boyang Zhang, 2016. "South Africa’s Exports Performance: Any Role for Structural Factors?," IMF Working Papers 2016/024, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
    4. Mabugu, Ramos & Chitiga, Margaret, 2009. "Is increased agricultural protection beneficial for South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 256-265, January.
    5. L. Rangasamy & K. Brick, 2007. "The Implications Of Oecd Growth For South African Exports," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 644-658, December.
    6. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave, 2016. "Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 186-202, March.
    7. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2008. "South African trade policy matters Trade performance and trade policy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 585-608, October.
    8. Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, September.
    9. Jacob R. Fooks & Steven J. Dundas & Titus O. Awokuse, 2013. "Are There Efficiency Gains from the Removal of Natural Resource Export Restrictions? Evidence from British Columbia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1098-1114, August.
    10. Samuel Carrasco & Diego Gianelli & Carolina Godoy, 2015. "Sensibilidad de las Exportaciones al TCR: Un Análisis Sectorial y por Destino," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 745, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Edwards, Lawrence J & Garlick, Robert, 2008. "Trade flows and the exchange rate in South Africa," MPRA Paper 36666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.
    13. Chitiga, Margaret & Fofana, Ismael & Mabugu, Ramos, 2011. "A multiregion general equilibrium analysis of fiscal consolidation in South Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1110, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Alberto Behar, 2005. "Does training benefit those who do not get any? Elasticities of complementarity and factor price in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 244, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Deb, Surajit, 2010. "Can Trade Liberalization Promote Growth in Agriculture: Evidence from China and India," Conference papers 332011, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance & Trade Policy," Growth Lab Working Papers 14m, Harvard's Growth Lab.

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