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Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment

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  • Pablo Cuba-Borda
  • Sanjay R. Singh

Abstract

We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypotheses of long-lasting low-interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:I–2019:IV, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expectations trap relies on its ability to generate the observed negative correlation between inflation and output growth.

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  • Pablo Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2024. "Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 389-416, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:389-416
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210453
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    1. Brandyn Bok & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2022. "Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds," Working Paper Series 2022-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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