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Uninsured Unemployment Risk and Optimal Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Edouard Challe

    (CREST; CNRS; Ecole Polytechnique)

Abstract

I study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian economy wherein households precautionary-save against uninsured, endogenous unemployment risk. In this economy greater unemployment risk raises desired savings, causing aggregate demand to fall and feedback to greater unemployment risk. I show this de?flationary feedback loop to be constrained-inefficient and to call for an accommodative monetary policy response: after a contractionary aggregate shock the policy rate should be kept signifi?cantly lower and for longer than in the perfect-insurance benchmark. For example, the usual prescription obtained under perfect insurance of a hike in the policy rate in the face of a bad supply (i.e., productivity or cost-push) shock is easily overturned. If implemented, the optimal policy effectively breaks the defl?ationary feedback loop and takes the dynamics of the imperfect-insurance economy close to that of the perfect-insurance benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Edouard Challe, 2017. "Uninsured Unemployment Risk and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2017-54, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2017-54
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus, 2017. "Credibility and Monetary Policy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03457527, HAL.
    2. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    3. Joel M. David & David Zeke, 2021. "Risk-Taking, Capital Allocation and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series WP-2021-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 71-95, July.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1lu2rbsv0n8pkqid81q0tfof3f is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sterk, Vincent & Cui, Wei, 2018. "Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/j75mfllkr89c8aod1nr586ksc is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Xavier Ragot, 2018. "Limited Participation, Capital Accumulation and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers hal-03444395, HAL.
    9. Bilbiie, Florin, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 12601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Mengus, Eric & Barthelemy, Jean, 2017. "Monetary Rules, Determinacy and Limited Enforcement," HEC Research Papers Series 1202, HEC Paris, revised 11 May 2019.
    11. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2022. "Managing Inequality Over Business Cycles: Optimal Policies With Heterogeneous Agents And Aggregate Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 511-540, February.
    12. Andrea Boitani & Lorenzo Di Domenico & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Monetary policy and inequality: an heterogenous agents’ approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def133, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    13. Anmol Bhandari & David Evans & Mikhail Golosov & Thomas J. Sargent, 2021. "Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary‐Fiscal Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2559-2599, November.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/j7nncuouv9a0af4mubojrr2vc is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/j75mfllkr89c8aod1nr586ksc is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Boris Chafwehé & François Courtoy, 2021. "Optimal Taxes and Transfers with Household Heterogeneity," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/j7nncuouv9a0af4mubojrr2vc is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus, 2017. "Credibility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers hal-03457527, HAL.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/j7nncuouv9a0af4mubojrr2vc is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1lu2rbsv0n8pkqid81q0tfof3f is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/j7nncuouv9a0af4mubojrr2vc is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/j75mfllkr89c8aod1nr586ksc is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/j75mfllkr89c8aod1nr586ksc is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment risk; imperfect insurance; optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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