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Real Options, Preemption, and the Dynamics of Industry Investments

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Boyer

    (Université de Montréal and CIRANO)

  • Pierre Lasserre

    (Economics Department, UQAM, GREQAM and CIRANO)

  • Thomas Mariotti

    (GREMAQ and Université de Toulouse I)

  • Michel Moreaux

    (Institut Universitaire de France, Université de Toulouse I, IDEI and LEERNA)

Abstract

We study the development of a duopoly industry - evolution of firm capacities and competitive behavior - in a continuous-time real-options model of capacity investment. Our methodology allows the evaluation of investment options and exercise rules in a strategic setup. In the initial industry development phase, firms attempt to preempt each other, so that the first industry investment occurs earlier than socially optimal and the first entrant takes more risk than socially optimal. While capacity units are costly, indivisible, durable, and big relative to market size, early entry cannot secure a first-mover advantage, so that both firms are active beyond some level of market development. Once both firms hold capacity, tacit collusion, taking the form of postponed capacity investment, may occur in Markov Perfect Equilibrium. Volatility and the expected speed of market development play a crucial role in the determination of competitive behavior: we show that a tacit-collusion equilibrium is certain to exist when market growth is highly volatile and/or very fast.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Boyer & Pierre Lasserre & Thomas Mariotti & Michel Moreaux, 2001. "Real Options, Preemption, and the Dynamics of Industry Investments," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-10, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:cre:uqamwp:20-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas, 2000. "Irreversible Investment and Learning Externalities," IDEI Working Papers 97, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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    5. David E. Mills, 1988. "Preemptive Investment Timing," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(1), pages 114-122, Spring.
    6. Dasgupta, P. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1988. "Potential competition, actual competition, and economic welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 569-577, March.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    9. Athey, Susan & Schmutzler, Armin, 2001. "Investment and Market Dominance," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26, Spring.
    10. Fudenberg, Drew & Gilbert, Richard & Stiglitz, Joseph & Tirole, Jean, 1983. "Preemption, leapfrogging and competition in patent races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-31, June.
    11. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    12. Bart Lambrecht & William Perraudin, 1996. "Real Options and Preemption," Archive Working Papers 026, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    13. John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
    2. Boyer, Marcel & Lasserre, Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2012. "A dynamic duopoly investment game without commitment under uncertain market expansion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 663-681.
    3. Bustamante, Maria Cecilia, 2011. "Strategic investment, industry concentration and the cross section of returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37454, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Boyer, Marcel & Lasserre, Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2010. "A Dynamic Duopoly Investment Game under Uncertain Market Growth," TSE Working Papers 10-171, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M. & Pawlina, G. & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty : Merging Real Options with Game Theory," Discussion Paper 2003-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
    7. Boyer, Marcel & Robert, Jacques, 2006. "Organizational inertia and dynamic incentives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 324-348, March.
    8. Jacco Thijssen & Kuno Huisman & Peter Kort, 2006. "The effects of information on strategic investment and welfare," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 399-424, June.
    9. Thijssen, Jacco J. J. & Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "The effect of information streams on capital budgeting decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(3), pages 759-774, September.
    10. Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Investment under uncertainty, market evolution and coalition spillovers in a game theoretic perspective," Other publications TiSEM 672073a6-492e-4621-8d4a-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2003. "Strategic Commitment Versus Flexibility in a Duopoly with Entry and Exit," Discussion Papers 1379, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    12. Maria Cecillia Bustamante, 2011. "Strategic Investment, Industry Concentration and the Cross Section of Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp681, Financial Markets Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real options; Option value; Duopoly; Preemption; Collusion; Capacity; Industry growth; Volatility; Risk - Options réelles; Valeur d'option; Duopole; Préemption; Collusion; Capacité; Croissance du marché; Volatilité; Risque.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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