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Why Do Institutional Investors Chase Return Trends?

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  • Kaniel, Ron
  • Alt, Aydogan
  • Yoeli, Uzi

Abstract

We propose and test a simple explanation for institutional investors? tendency to chase return trends. When investors face uncertainty about the precision of their private information, they wait for subsequent confirming news before establishing stock positions. While such news impact the stock price, at the same time they increase investors? estimates of the precision of their information. With low information quality the latter effect dominates and causes investors to purchase the stock after confirming good news. We formalize these ideas in a simple model and test the model?s predictions on mutual funds? stock holdings data. Using mutual funds? past return experiences with individual stocks as a proxy for their stock-specific information quality, we find evidence for the prediction that trend chasing is more likely when information quality is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaniel, Ron & Alt, Aydogan & Yoeli, Uzi, 2012. "Why Do Institutional Investors Chase Return Trends?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8773
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    3. Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas Maystre, 2013. "The synchronized and long-lasting structural change on commodity markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Algorithmic Finance, IOS Press, vol. 2(3-4), pages 233-239.
    4. Kapadia, Nishad & Zekhnini, Morad, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic jumps matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 666-692.
    5. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Ichiue, Hibiki & Oura, Hiroko, 2022. "Changes in the global investor base and the stability of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Daniel Bradley & Xi Liu & Christos Pantzalis, 2014. "Bucking the Trend: The Informativeness of Analyst Contrarian Recommendations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 391-414, June.
    7. Olena Onishchenko & Numan Ülkü, 2022. "Investor types' trading around the short‐term reversal pattern," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2627-2647, April.
    8. Filzen, Joshua J. & Schutte, Maria Gabriela, 2017. "Comovement, financial reporting complexity, and information markets: Evidence from the effect of changes in 10-Q lengths on internet search volumes and peer correlations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-37.
    9. Dutt, Tanuj & Humphery-Jenner, Mark, 2013. "Stock return volatility, operating performance and stock returns: International evidence on drivers of the ‘low volatility’ anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 999-1017.
    10. Ping‐Wen Sun & Zipeng Wen, 2023. "Stock return predictability of the cumulative abnormal returns around the earnings announcement date: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 58-86, March.
    11. Zhang, Jinhua & Mao, Rui & Wang, Jieyu & Xing, Mengying, 2021. "The way back home: Trading behaviours of foreign institutional investors in China amid the COVID-19 pandemic," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Ibert, Markus, 2023. "What do mutual fund managers’ private portfolios tell us about their skills?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Cvijanović, Dragana & Dasgupta, Amil & Zachariadis, Konstantinos E., 2022. "The Wall Street stampede: Exit as governance with interacting blockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 433-455.
    14. Melusi Mpofu & Mabutho Sibanda, 2015. "Private Equity Capital in a Less Developed Economy: Evidence, Issues and Perspectives," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(5), pages 17-29, October.
    15. Banerjee, Snehal & Breon-Drish, Bradyn, 2020. "Strategic trading and unobservable information acquisition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 458-482.
    16. Chen, Fan & Qian, Meifen & Sun, Ping-Wen & Yu, Bin, 2018. "In search for managerial skills beyond common performance measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 224-239.
    17. Bradley, Daniel & Pantzalis, Christos & Yuan, Xiaojing, 2016. "The influence of political bias in state pension funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 69-91.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutional investors; Momentum; Mutual funds; Return trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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