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Do idiosyncratic jumps matter?

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  • Kapadia, Nishad
  • Zekhnini, Morad

Abstract

We show that idiosyncratic jumps are a key determinant of mean stock returns from both an ex post and ex ante perspective. Ex post, the entire annual average return of a typical stock accrues on the four days on which its price jumps. Ex ante, idiosyncratic jump risk earns a premium: a value-weighted weekly long-short portfolio that buys (sells) stocks with high (low) predicted jump probabilities earns annualized mean returns of 9.4% and four-factor alphas of 8.1%. This strategy’s returns are larger when there are greater limits to arbitrage. These results are consistent with investor aversion to idiosyncratic jump risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kapadia, Nishad & Zekhnini, Morad, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic jumps matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 666-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:131:y:2019:i:3:p:666-692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.08.014
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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
    2. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Caporin, Massimiliano & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Not all words are equal: Sentiment and jumps in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    4. Darsh Kachhara & John K. E Markin & Astha Singh, 2023. "Option Smile Volatility and Implied Probabilities: Implications of Concavity in IV Curves," Papers 2307.15718, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Leong, Minhao & Kwok, Simon, 2023. "The pricing of jump and diffusive risks in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Ao Kong & Robert Azencott & Hongliang Zhu & Xindan Li, 2020. "Pattern recognition in micro-trading behaviors before stock price jumps: A framework based on multivariate time series analysis," Papers 2011.04939, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    8. Cui, Xin & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yao, Shouyu & Wu, Yiyao, 2022. "Positive information shocks, investor behavior and stock price crash risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 493-518.
    9. Ian Garrett & Adnan Gazi, 2024. "Early exercise, implied volatility spread and future stock return: Jumps bind them all," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 720-743, May.
    10. Lee, Suzanne S., 2023. "The role of idiosyncratic jumps in stock markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Ao Kong & Robert Azencott & Hongliang Zhu & Xindan Li, 2024. "Pattern Recognition in Microtrading Behaviors Preceding Stock Price Jumps: A Study Based on Mutual Information for Multivariate Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 1401-1429, April.
    12. Zhe Li, 2020. "Equity Option Pricing with Systematic and Idiosyncratic Volatility and Jump Risks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic jumps; Idiosyncratic risk; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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