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Wage Inflation, Electoral Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Regime: Theory and UK Evidence

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  • Alogoskoufis, George
  • Lockwood, Ben
  • Philippopoulos, Apostolis

Abstract

We extend the `rational-partisan' model of inflation to allow for the effects of unemployment persistence on the dynamics of inflation. We combine this model with the `exchange-rate-regime' model of inflation and examine the experience of the United Kingdom. Outside the fixed exchange rate regime of Bretton Woods, persistently high inflation can be attributed to the failure of political parties to precommit to price stability, in the light of unemployment persistence. Elections are associated with higher inflation, with the exception of the Thatcher period. There is no evidence that the Labour party is more inflationary in general than the Conservatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Alogoskoufis, George & Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 1992. "Wage Inflation, Electoral Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Regime: Theory and UK Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:657
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 847-850.
    2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:129:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. V A Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 1995. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targets and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions in OECD Economies"," Working Papers 9606, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 1996.
    4. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad, 2020. "Impact of Political Uncertainty on Pakistan Stock Exchange (1990-1999): An Event Study Approach," MPRA Paper 104623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. George Economides & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2003. "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policies and Growth: Theory and Evidence from Germany, the UK and the US," Working Papers 2003_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. & Prodromidis, Kyprianos P. & Serletis, Apostolos, 1998. "Electoral and Partisan Cycle Regularities: A Cointegration Test," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 119-140, April.
    7. J. Stephen Ferris & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2012. "Fixed versus Flexible Election Cycles: Explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s Election Cycle," Carleton Economic Papers 12-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    8. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecoci, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, June.
    9. Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 1995. "Disinflation and credibility in small open European economies in the 1980s: Parties, elections and the ERM," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 157-170, March.
    10. Belke, Ansgar H. & Herz, Bernhard & Vogel, Lukas, 2005. "Structural Reforms and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1798, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Jonsson, Gunnar, 1997. "Monetary politics and unemployment persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 303-325, July.
    12. Michael Berlemann & Gunther Markwardt, 2007. "Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1919-1945, December.
    13. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    14. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    15. George Bratsiotis, 2000. "Political parties and inflation in Greece: the metamorphosis of the Socialist Party on the way to EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 451-454.
    16. George Alogoskoufis & Dong-Ho Lee & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 1998. "Exchange-Rate Regimes, Political Parties and the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Evidence from Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 39-51, January.
    17. Ozkan, F Gulcin, 1998. "Partisan Business and Budget Cycles with Separate Fiscal and Monetary Authorities," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(2), pages 178-195, March.
    18. Hahn, Volker, 2009. "Reciprocity and voting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 467-480, November.
    19. Heckelman, Jac C., 2001. "Partisan Business Cycles under Variable Election Dates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 261-275, April.
    20. Belke, Ansgar, 2000. "Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 225-283, September.
    21. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Beyond Trade – Is Reform Effort Affected by the Exchange Rate Regime? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 29-58.
    22. Jensen, Henrik, 1999. "Monetary policy cooperation and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1133-1153, August.
    23. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Are Monetary Rules and Reforms Complements or Substitutes? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Working Papers 129, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    24. George Economides & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2003. "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policies & Growth: Theory and Evidence from Germany, the UK and the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 1072, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Exchange Rate Regimes; Inflation; Politics; Unemployment; United Kingdom;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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