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Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Falk, Armin
  • Dohmen, Thomas J
  • Sunde, Uwe
  • Huffman, David

Abstract

Prominent economic theories have emphasized the role of commonly held perceptions and expectations for determining macroeconomic outcomes. A key empirical question is how such collectively held beliefs are formed. We use the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment. We provide direct evidence that seemingly irrelevant events (the outcomes of soccer matches) can systematically affect individual perceptions about economic prospects, both on a personal and economy-wide level.

Suggested Citation

  • Falk, Armin & Dohmen, Thomas J & Sunde, Uwe & Huffman, David, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5851
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    Cited by:

    1. Fehr, Dietmar & Heinemann, Frank & Llorente-Saguer, Aniol, 2019. "The power of sunspots: An experimental analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 123-136.
    2. Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo & Maria Rita Pierleoni, 2018. "Assessing The Olympic Games: The Economic Impact And Beyond," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 649-682, July.
    3. Richard Duhautois & Bastien Drut, 2017. "Is work duration in France affected by football tournaments?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 14-19.
    4. Tausch, Franziska & Zumbuehl, Maria, 2018. "Stability of risk attitudes and media coverage of economic news," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 295-310.
    5. Peter A. Groothuis & Kurt W. Rotthoff, 2016. "The Economic Impact and Civic Pride Effects of Sports Teams and Mega-Events: Do The Public and the Professionals Agree?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 21-32, February.
    6. Simon Planells Struse & Daniel Montolio, 2014. "The effect of football matches on crime patterns in Barcelona," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1606, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Julia Bredtmann & Carsten J. Crede & Sebastian Otten, 2014. "The Effect of Gender Equality on International Soccer Performance," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 065, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    8. Wicker, Pamela & Prinz, Joachim & von Hanau, Tassilo, 2012. "Estimating the value of national sporting success," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 200-210.
    9. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & David Matthews & Charles Sutcliffe, 2012. "Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3435-3452, September.
    10. Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Predicting the macroeconomic effects of abstract and concrete events," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 192-201, March.
    11. Daniel Montolio & Simón Planells-Struse, 2019. "Measuring the negative externalities of a private leisure activity: hooligans and pickpockets around the stadium," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 465-504.
    12. Pete Groothuis & Kurt W. Rotthoff, 2014. "Surveying the Literature and the People: The Economic Impact of Sports Teams and Civic Pride," Working Papers 14-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    13. Markus LANG & Alexander RATHKE & Marco RUNKEL, 2010. "The Economic Consequences Of Foreigner Rules In National Sports Leagues," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 31, pages 47-64.
    14. Doerrenberg, Philipp & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2014. "Is soccer good for you? The motivational impact of big sporting events on the unemployed," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 66-69.
    15. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    16. Swantje Allmers & Wolfgang Maennig, 2009. "Economic impacts of the FIFA Soccer World Cups in France 1998, Germany 2006, and outlook for South Africa 2010," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 500-519.
    17. Michael Mutz, 2019. "Life Satisfaction and the UEFA EURO 2016: Findings from a Nation-Wide Longitudinal Study in Germany," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 375-391, April.
    18. Stan du Plessis & Wolfgang Maennig, 2007. "World Cup 2010: South African Economic Perspectives and Perspectives Policy Challenges Informed by the Experience of Germany 2006," Working Papers 004, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
    19. Kirgios, Erika L. & Mandel, Graelin H. & Park, Yeji & Milkman, Katherine L. & Gromet, Dena M. & Kay, Joseph S. & Duckworth, Angela L., 2020. "Teaching temptation bundling to boost exercise: A field experiment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 161(S), pages 20-35.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectation formation; Sunspots; Soccer world cup; Macroeconomic outcomes; Psychology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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