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Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union

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  • Vines, David
  • Wren-Lewis, Simon
  • Kirsanova, Tatiana

Abstract

We analyse the stability of countries within a monetary union in the face of asymmetric shocks, using a simple but widely applicable model. We show that members of the union may be subject to severe, and possibly unstable, cycles following asymmetric shocks if there is a significant backward looking element in inflation behaviour, and if real interest rates influence the level of aggregate demand. This cyclical instability can be mitigated if fiscal policy in each member country reacts to inflation differences, but it can be aggravated if fiscal feedback on debt is too strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5584
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Mr. Julian Berengaut, 2006. "Beauty Queens and Wallflowers: Currency Unions in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2006/226, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Wendy Carlin, 2013. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, Wage-Setting Institutions, and Fiscal Stabilization Policy: Lessons of the Eurozone's First Decade," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 489-519, September.
    3. Tatiana Kirsanova & Mathan Satchi & David Vines & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2007. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1759-1784, October.
    4. Alan Ahearne & Juan Delgado & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2008. "A tail of two countries," Policy Briefs 6, Bruegel.
    5. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2007. "When Inflation Persistence Really Matters: Two examples," Kiel Working Papers 1351, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Titiana Kirsanova & David Vines & Mathan Satchi & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2005. "Inflation Persistence, Fiscal Constraints and Non-cooperative Authorities Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 17, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2005. "Fiscal Stabilization Policy and Fiscal Institutions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 584-597, Winter.
    8. Tomasz Michalak & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2009. "Strategic Interactions between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities in a Multi-Country New-Keynesian Model of a Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2534, CESifo.
    9. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2007. "Inflation persistence: Implications for a design of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to external shocks," CEIS Research Paper 93, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    10. Oliver Landmann, 2009. "EMU@10: Coping with Rotating Slumps," Discussion Paper Series 9, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jul 2009.
    11. Stephen Hall & Sérgio Lagoa, 2014. "Inflation and Business Cycle Convergence in the Euro Area: Empirical Analysis Using an Unobserved Component Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 885-908, November.
    12. Severine Menguy, 2010. "Enlargement of the Economic and Monetary Union: To which Structurally Heterogeneous Countries?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 53-70.
    13. Oliver Landmann, 2012. "Rotating Slumps in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 303-317, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary and fiscal policies; Monetary union; Macroeconomic stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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