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Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation

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  • Jappelli, Tullio
  • Padula, Mario
  • Bottazzi, Renata

Abstract

We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households? expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of Italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. Two parameters are crucial to estimate pension wealth: the age at which workers expect to retire and the expected ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits these expectations during a period of intense pension reforms between 1989 and 2002. These reforms had different consequences for different cohorts and employment groups, providing a quasi-experimental framework to study the effect of social security arrangements on expectations of retirement outcomes and household saving decisions. Our main findings are that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario & Bottazzi, Renata, 2005. "Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4882
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    Cited by:

    1. Tullio Jappelli & Immacolata Marino & Mario Padula, 2014. "Households' Saving and Debt in Italy," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2-3, pages 175-202.
    2. Grech, Aaron George, 2012. "Evaluating the possible impact of pension reforms on future living standards in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51296, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Measuring Pension‐benefit Expectations Probabilistically," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 201-236, June.
    4. Renata Bottazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009. "The Portfolio Effect of Pension Reforms," Working Papers 2009_17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2016. "The Consumption and Wealth Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Lifetime Resources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1458-1471, May.
    6. repec:cep:sticas:/161 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Pension reform;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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