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EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and CIS Integration

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  • Widgren, Mika
  • Sulamaa, Pekka

Abstract

This Paper examines the economic effects of the opening of the former Soviet Union. The analysis carried out in the Paper is two-fold. First, we simulate the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU, and second, we analyse how deeper integration between the EU and FSU contributes to this. The analysis is carried out with FTAP computable general equilibrium model. We find that there is a trade-off between the two roads of European integration arrangements. Eastern enlargement seems, even in its very deep form, be beneficial for all EU regions without causing substantial welfare losses outside the Union. The only regions that seem to lose somewhat are NAFTA and Japan. EU-CIS integration, on the other hand, has a different impact. To be beneficial for CIS-countries, free trade between the EU and CIS countries requires improved productivity in the latter, which may be due to better institutions or increased FDI, but still the agreement is not beneficial for large parts of the EU and the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Widgren, Mika & Sulamaa, Pekka, 2003. "EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and CIS Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 3768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3768
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    Cited by:

    1. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
    2. Libman, Alexander, 2008. "Federalism and regionalism in transition countries: A survey," MPRA Paper 29196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kerkelä, Leena, 2004. "Distortion costs and effects of price liberalisation in Russian energy markets: A CGE analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Ehigiamusoe, Kizito Uyi & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2019. "Do economic and financial integration stimulate economic growth? A critical survey," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-27.
    6. Bonin, John P., 2005. "Europe and Central Asia after the May 2004 EU enlargement: A brief synthesis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-5, March.
    7. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December.
    8. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:136 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jacobsen, Lars-Bo, 2004. "Organic Production in a Dynamic CGE Model – Effects of the 2003 Reform of the CAP," Conference papers 331256, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Kerkelä, Leena, 2004. "Distortion costs and effects of price liberalisation in Russian energy markets : A CGE analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European integration; Cge-models;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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