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The Observational Equivalence of Taylor Rule and Taylor-Type Rules

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Srinivasan, Naveen
  • Perugini, Francesco

Abstract

In the past few years the view has commonly been expressed that central banks follow `Taylor Rules' (as first promulgated by Henderson and McKibbin (1993)). We show that the appearance of such an interest rate rule ? a ?pseudo-Taylor rule? ? can be created by a standard macro model in which actually a money supply rule is operating with no interest rate feedback ? i.e, where there is in fact no Taylor rule operating at all. Hence an interest equation does not identify a (structural) Taylor rule; a Taylor rule and a pseudo-rule, though corresponding to different structural models, are ?observationally equivalent? to use the expression coined by Thomas Sargent (1976). It remains an open question whether Taylor rules or money supply rules are appropriate from a welfare viewpoint.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen & Perugini, Francesco, 2001. "The Observational Equivalence of Taylor Rule and Taylor-Type Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2959
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    Cited by:

    1. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    2. Minford, Patrick & Perugini, Francesco & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2002. "Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 145-150, June.
    3. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.
    4. Ami Barnea & Joseph Djivre, 2004. "Changes in Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and the Transmission Mechanism in Israel, 1989.IV – 2002.I," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2004.13, Bank of Israel.
    5. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    6. David D. VanHoose, 2004. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 193-215, April.
    7. Patrick Minford, 2008. "Commentary on \\"Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy \\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 331-338.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Observational equivalence; Monetary policy rules;

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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