IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/1692.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)

Author

Listed:
  • Rebelo, Sérgio

Abstract

There is a well-known set of empirical regularities that describe the experience of countries that peg their exchange rate as part of a macroeconomic adjustment programme. Following-the-peg economies tend to experience an increase in GDP, a large expansion of production in the non-tradable sector, a contraction in tradables production, a current account deterioration, an increase in the real wage, a reduction in unemployment, a sharp appreciation in the relative price of non-tradables and a boom in the real estate market. This paper discusses how the changes in the expected behaviour of fiscal policy that tend to be associated with the peg can contribute to explaining these facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebelo, Sérgio, 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)," CEPR Discussion Papers 1692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1692
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy And Elections In Oecd Democracies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Ades, Alberto F. & Kiguel, Miguel & Liviatan, Nissan, 1993. "Exchange rate based stabilization : tales from Europe and Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1087, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 241-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. K K Tang, 1998. "Property Markets and Policies in an Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model," Departmental Working Papers 1999-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, revised Jan 1999.
    3. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Coto-Martinez, Javier & Dixon, Huw, 2003. "Profits, markups and entry: fiscal policy in an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 573-597, February.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    6. Martin Uribe, 1997. "Habit formation and the comovement of prices and consumption during exchange-rate based stabilization programs," International Finance Discussion Papers 598, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jung, Yongseung, 2000. "Nominal Rigidities, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 541-580, October.
    8. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    9. Cunha, Alexandre & Teixeira, Arilton, 2004. "The Impacts of Trade Blocks and Tax Reforms on the Brazilian Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 58(3), July.
    10. Javier Coto-Martinez & Juan C. Reboredo, 2004. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in an imperfectly competitive economy: empirical evidence for G7 countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 19, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Cunha, Alexandre, 2013. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 33(1), September.
    12. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    13. Daniel M. Chin & Preston J. Miller, 1995. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Staff Report 194, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Josip Tica, 2006. "Exchange Rate Economics in Transition Economies," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(2), pages 155-170, November.
    15. Robertson, Raymond, 2003. "Exchange rates and relative wages: evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-48, March.
    16. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Coto-Martinez, J. & Reboredo, J. C., 2007. "The Relative Price of Non-traded Goods in an Imperfectly Competitive Economy: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries," Working Papers 07/14, Department of Economics, City University London.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nima Mirzaei & Béla Vizvári, 2015. "A New Approach to Reconstruction of Moody’s Rating System for Countries Investment Risk Rating," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 167-182.
    2. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2015. "Budget, expenditures composition and political manipulation: Evidence from Portugal," NIPE Working Papers 4/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Antonio C. David & Can Sever, 2024. "Electoral cycles in tax reforms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 495-529, August.
    4. Enrica Detragiache & A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "Exchange Rate‐Based Stabilization In Western Europe: Greece, Ireland, Italy, And Portugal," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 358-369, July.
    5. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
    6. Kabwe Omoyi Fanny, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Political Regime Type in African Sub-Regions," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 153-165, June.
    7. Troeger, Vera & Schneider, Christina J., 2012. "Strategic Budgeteering and Debt Allocation," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 85, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Belke, Ansgar, 2000. "Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 225-283, September.
    9. Funashima, Yoshito, 2016. "The Fed-induced political business cycle: Empirical evidence from a time–frequency view," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 402-411.
    10. Aidt, Toke S. & Mooney, Graham, 2014. "Voting suffrage and the political budget cycle: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902–1937," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 53-71.
    11. Drabek, Zdenek & Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of Trade Policy in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 642-668, December.
    12. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    13. Michael A. Nelson, 2000. "Electoral Cycles and the Politics of State Tax Policy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(6), pages 540-560, November.
    14. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. "How opportunistic are partisan German central bankers: Evidence on the Vaubel hypothesis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 807-821, December.
    15. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Governmentally amplified output volatility," MPRA Paper 65330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lucia Rossel Flores & Martijn Huysmans & Joras Ferwerda, 2024. "The political business cycle of tax reforms," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 65-88, July.
    17. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Carolina Rentería & Roberto Steiner, 2000. "Decentralization and Bailouts in Colombia," Informes de Investigación 2252, Fedesarrollo.
    18. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    19. Smita Roy Trivedi, 2021. "Political Stability and the Effectiveness of Currency Based Macro Prudential Measures," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(2), pages 319-332, June.
    20. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Political Business Cycles In The New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 896-915, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Fixed Exchange Rates; Macroeconomic Stabilization; Real Exchange Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.