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Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment

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  • Bryan, Gharad
  • Karlan, Dean
  • Osman, Adam

Abstract

We experimentally study the impact of relatively large enterprise loans in Egypt. Larger loans generate small average impacts, but machine learning using psychometric data reveals that †top-performers†(those with the highest predicted treatment effects) substantially increase profits, while profits drop for poor-performers. The large differences imply that lender credit allocation decisions matter for aggregate income, yet we find that existing practice leads to substantial misallocation. We argue that some entrepreneurs are over-optimistic and squander the opportunities presented by larger loans by taking on too much risk, and show the promise of allocations based on entrepreneurial type relative to firm characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan, Gharad & Karlan, Dean & Osman, Adam, 2022. "Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 16573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16573
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    Cited by:

    1. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.
    2. Masselus, Lise & Petrik, Christina & Ankel-Peters, Jörg, 2024. "Lost in the design space? Construct validity in the microfinance literature," Ruhr Economic Papers 1097, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    entrepreneurship; Enterprise credit; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Psychometric data; Small and medium enterprises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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