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Foreign Currency Borrowing of Corporations as Carry Trades: Evidence from India

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  • Acharya, Viral
  • Vij, Siddharth

Abstract

We establish that macroprudential policies limiting capital flows can curb risks arising from corporate foreign currency borrowing in emerging markets. Using detailed firm- level data from India, we show that propensity to issue foreign currency debt for the same firm is higher when the difference in short-term interest rates between India and the US is higher, i.e., when the dollar ‘carry trade’ is more profitable; this behavior is driven by the period after the global financial crisis. The positive relationship between issuance and the ‘carry trade’ breaks down once regulators institute more stringent interest-rate caps on foreign currency borrowing. Riskier borrowers such as importers and those with higher interest costs cut issuance most. Firm equity exposure to foreign exchange risk rose after issuance in favorable funding conditions and emerged as a source of external sector vulnerability during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013. Macroprudential policy action limiting capital flows is able to nullify this effect, such as during the market stress due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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  • Acharya, Viral & Vij, Siddharth, 2020. "Foreign Currency Borrowing of Corporations as Carry Trades: Evidence from India," CEPR Discussion Papers 15440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15440
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    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    2. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Elif Karaçimen & Joel Rabinovich, 2023. "The changing financial practises of Brazilian and Turkish firms under financial subordination, a mixed-methods analysis," Working Papers PKWP2306, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Sur, Abhisek & Nandy, Amarendu & Ray, Partha, 2024. "Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 530-551.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Foreign currency debt; Foreign exchange risk; Taper tantrum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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