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Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World

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  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy
  • Mehrotra, Neil

Abstract

Conditions of secular stagnation—low output growth g and low interest rates r—have counteracting effects on the cost of servicing public debt, r − g. Using data for ad- vanced economies, we document that r is often less than g, but r − g exhibits substan- tial variability over the medium-term. We build a continuous-time model in which the debt-to-GDP ratio is stochastic and r

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  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Mehrotra, Neil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World," CEPR Discussion Papers 15282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15282
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    Cited by:

    1. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2023. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity: Optimal Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(11), pages 3233-3264.
    2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2021. "Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies," Working Papers 2021-15, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    4. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2021. "Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies with Low Interest Rates," Staff Report 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Sergio Rebelo & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2022. "Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2719-2764, October.
    6. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2021. "$$r-g," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 197-229, March.
    7. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular stagnation; Public debt; Debt sustainability; Low interest rates; Government default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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