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Patents, News, and Business Cycles

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  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia
  • HacıoÄŸlu Hoke, Sinem
  • Bluwstein, Kristina

Abstract

We exploit information in patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no effect on aggregate productivity in the short-run, but are a significant driver of its trend component. News shocks prompt a broad-based business cycle expansion in anticipation of the future increase in TFP, but only account for a modest share of fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates at business cycle frequencies. The stock market prices-in news shocks on impact but consumer expectations, dragged down by labor market outcomes, take sensibly longer to adjust, consistent with the predictions of models of information frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & HacıoÄŸlu Hoke, Sinem & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2020. "Patents, News, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    3. Daniela Fantozzi & Alessio Muscarnera, 2021. "A News-based Policy Index for Italy: Expectations and Fiscal Policy," CEIS Research Paper 509, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    4. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotic, 2022. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 51-66, March.
    5. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Sascha A. Keweloh & Mathias Klein & Jan Pruser, 2023. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers by Combining Statistical Identification with Potentially Endogenous Proxies," Papers 2302.13066, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    7. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2020. "Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1906, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology news shocks; Business cycle; Svar-iv; Patent applications; Information frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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