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The Redistributive Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish Flu

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  • Rosés, Joan R.
  • Basco, Sergi
  • Domenech, Jordi

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variation in “excess deaths" and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related “excess deaths" on real wages is large, negative, and short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from null to a 15 per cent decline, concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases in mortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosés, Joan R. & Basco, Sergi & Domenech, Jordi, 2020. "The Redistributive Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish Flu," CEPR Discussion Papers 14753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14753
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Spanish Influenza

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    Cited by:

    1. Joe Piacentini & Harley Frazis & Peter B. Meyer & Michael Schultz & Leo Sveikauskas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets and Inequality," Economic Working Papers 551, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    2. Ross Cohen-Kristiansen & Roberto Pinheiro, 2020. "The 1918 Flu and COVID-19 Pandemics: Different Patients, Different Economy," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(13), pages 1-5, June.
    3. Sergi Basco & Jordi Domènech & Joan R. Rosés, 2022. "Unequal Mortality During the Spanish Flu," Palgrave Studies in Economic History, in: Pandemics, Economics and Inequality, chapter 0, pages 33-50, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
    5. Basco, Sergi & Domenech, Jordi & Rosés, Joan R., 2021. "Unequal Mortality during the Spanish Flu," CEPR Discussion Papers 15783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Guillaume Morel & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2023. "Do Pandemics Impact Macroeconomic Variables? A Cliometric Approach," Working Papers 01-23, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    9. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "A Literature Review of Pandemics and Development: the Long-Term Perspective," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 183-212, March.
    11. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2021. "Death, demography and the denominator: Age-adjusted Influenza-18 mortality in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    12. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.
    13. Mona Foertsch & Felix Roesel, 2023. "Public Infrastructure and Regional Resilience: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Flu in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 10705, CESifo.
    14. Mikel Erkoreka & Josu Hernando & Eduardo J. Alonso & Anton Erkoreka, 2021. "Impacto económico, demográfico y social de la pandemia de gripe española en Bizkaia (1918-1920)," Investigaciones de Historia Económica - Economic History Research (IHE-EHR), Journal of the Spanish Economic History Association, Asociación Española de Historia Económica, vol. 17(02), pages 42-53.
    15. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel & de Zwart, Pim, 2021. "A bitter epidemic: The impact of the 1918 influenza on sugar production in Java," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    16. Basco, Sergi & Domènech, Jordi & Rosés, Joan R., 2024. "Socioeconomic mortality differences during the Great Influenza in Spain," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Guillaume Morel & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2023. "Do Pandemics Impact Macroeconomic Variables? A Cliometric Approach," Working Papers of BETA 2023-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    18. Masato Shizume, 2022. "The Great Influenza Pandemic in Japan: Policy Responses and Socioeconomic Consequences," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2022.
    19. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2021. "Do Disease Epidemics Stimulate or Repress Entrepreneurial Activity?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 464-486, October.
    20. Benjamin Schneider & Hillary Vipond, 2023. "The Past and Future of Work: How History Can Inform the Age of Automation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10766, CESifo.
    21. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Subhasish Dey & Jessie Davidson, 2021. "The Determinants of Non-COVID-19 Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-country Panel Study," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 196-226, December.
    23. Vincent Geloso & Jamie Bologna Pavlik, 2021. "Economic Freedom And The Economic Consequences Of The 1918 Pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 255-263, April.
    24. Schneider, Benjamin & Vipond, Hillary, 2023. "The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation," Economic History Working Papers 119282, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    25. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Spanish flu; Real wages; Returns to capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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