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The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run

Author

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry
  • Zimmermann, Kaspar

Abstract

This paper studies trends and drivers of long-run stock market growth. Between 1870 and 1990, advanced-economy stock market capitalization grew in line with GDP. But over recent decades, a historically unprecedented expansion saw market cap to GDP ratios triple and remain persistently high. While most historical stock market growth was driven by issuances, this recent expansion was fuelled by rising equity prices. We show that the key driver of this structural break was a profit shift towards listed firms, with listed firm profit shares in both GDP and capital income doubling and reaching their highest levels in 146 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 14468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market capitalization; Equity issuance; Corporate profits; Wealth-to-income ratios; Long-run trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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