Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005.
"Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1282, July.
- Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping," Economics Working Papers 712, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Working Papers 17, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001.
"Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
- West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Working papers 9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato & Aureo de Paula, 2019.
"Inference on Causal and Structural Parameters using Many Moment Inequalities,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1867-1900.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Inference on causal and structural parameters using many moment inequalities," Papers 1312.7614, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2018. "Inference on causal and structural parameters using many moment inequalities," CeMMAP working papers CWP60/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009.
"Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
- Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2005. "Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2009. "Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention," Working Paper Series 1009, European Central Bank.
- Mirko Wiederholt & Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," 2005 Meeting Papers 369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Mackowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2007. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," CEPR Discussion Papers 6243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2014.
"A Practical Two‐Step Method for Testing Moment Inequalities,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1979-2002, September.
- Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2014. "A Practical Two‐Step Method for Testing Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1979-2002, September.
- Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2012. "A practical two-step method for testing moment inequalities," ECON - Working Papers 090, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2014.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173.
- Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2012.
"Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors,"
Papers
1212.6906, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors," CeMMAP working papers 76/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors," CeMMAP working papers CWP76/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2014.
"Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1455-1484, August.
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill," NBER Working Papers 17615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Veldkamp, Laura & Kacperczyk, Marcin & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill," CEPR Discussion Papers 9025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2012. "Time-varying fund manager skill," 2012 Meeting Papers 68, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Timmermann, Allan & Schmidt, Lawrence & , & Wermers, Russ, 2017. "Transparency, Investor Information Acquisition, and Money Market Fund Risk Rebalancing during the 2011-12 Eurozone Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 11895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Donald W. K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2010.
"Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 119-157, January.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2007. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1631, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Angie Andrikogiannopoulou & Filippos Papakonstantinou, 2019. "Reassessing False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Skill, Luck, or Lack of Power?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2667-2688, October.
- Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
- Emily A Gallagher & Lawrence D W Schmidt & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers, 2020. "Investor Information Acquisition and Money Market Fund Risk Rebalancing during the 2011–2012 Eurozone Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1445-1483.
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2016. "A Rational Theory of Mutual Funds' Attention Allocation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 571-626, March.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022.
"Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers halshs-02893291, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Market : Illusion or Reality?," Post-Print hal-04325544, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers 2020, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers 20-27, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2024. "Comparing forecasting performance with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 918-941.
- Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2023. "Comparing forecasting performance in cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
- Tim Köhler & Jörg Döpke, 2023. "Will the last be the first? Ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 797-832, February.
- Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Jin, Sainan & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2017.
"Robust Forecast Comparison,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1306-1351, December.
- Sainan Jin & Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2015. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Departmental Working Papers 201502, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016.
"Forecasting in Economics and Finance,"
Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 81-110, October.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6z55v472, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2023. "Comparing forecasting performance in cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
- West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013.
"Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
- Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2015. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 17-21, January.
- Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Comparing Forecasting Performance with Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 13746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018.
"Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010.
"Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & West, Kenneth D., 2009. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Working Paper Series 1030, European Central Bank.
- Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Kawakami, Kei, 2013.
"Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
- Kei Kawakami, 2013. "Conditional Forecast Selection from Many Forecasts: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1167, The University of Melbourne.
- Li, Jia & Patton, Andrew J., 2018.
"Asymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency data,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 223-240.
- Jia Li & Andrew J. Patton, 2013. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data," Working Papers 13-27, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014.
"A predictability test for a small number of nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.
- Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
More about this item
Keywords
Economic forecasting; Superior predictive skills; Multiple testing; Bloomberg survey;All these keywords.
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2020-08-17 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2020-08-17 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-HPE-2020-08-17 (History and Philosophy of Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.