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Estimating local fiscal multipliers using political connections

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  • Li, Rong
  • Zhou, Yijiang

Abstract

We use political connections between central and local governments in China to identify the effects of government spending. Our key innovation is using changes of central government ministers as a source of exogenous variation in earmarked transfers received by prefectural city-level governments. The analysis reveals that the increase in earmarked transfers is temporary and local effective tax rates do not respond to such fiscal expansions. Given that using cross-regional analysis for a monetary union can difference out the influence of monetary policy, the fiscal shock we study is a temporary, non-tax financed and no-monetary-policy-response government spending shock. We find the local fiscal multiplier in China is above one and there are no significant spillover effects from local government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Rong & Zhou, Yijiang, 2021. "Estimating local fiscal multipliers using political connections," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:66:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Mingyang & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Faster fiscal stimulus and a higher government spending multiplier in China: Mixed-frequency identification with SVAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Mao Zheng & Xiaoguang Li & Zhilong Qin & Muhammad Tayyab Sohail, 2023. "Examining the Impact of Fiscal Resources on Anti-Poverty Expenditure: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Zou, Yanchi, 2024. "The impact of fiscal stimulus on employment: Evidence from China’s four-trillion RMB package," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local fiscal multiplier; Government spending; Political connection; Earmarked transfer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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