IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpm/notfdl/2301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dealing with the new wave of debt overhangs: A Framework to Evaluate Economic Adjustment-Cum-Debt Restructuring Packages

Author

Listed:
  • Baqir, Reza
  • Diwan, Ishac
  • Rodrik, Dani

Abstract

Badly hurt by a series of negative shocks and increasingly shut-off from capital markets, many developing countries are at risk of falling into a debt crisis. The current global financial architecture reacts through the negotiation of complex packages that include the debtor country, international financial institutions (IFIs), and external creditors. The debtor must promise to “adjust†; the IFIs must put up new loans and enforce conditionality; and creditors must accept some amount of debt and debt service reduction. In this paper, we discuss how the diverse aspects of such adjustment-cum-debt restructuring packages can be evaluated in a coherent fashion. A unified treatment of such packages allows us to highlight important questions that tend to be less evident when studying them in isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Baqir, Reza & Diwan, Ishac & Rodrik, Dani, 2023. "Dealing with the new wave of debt overhangs: A Framework to Evaluate Economic Adjustment-Cum-Debt Restructuring Packages," FDL Policy Notes 2301, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://findevlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/FDL_Working-Paper-2_A-Framework-to-Evaluate-Economic-Adjustment-cum-Debt-Restructuring-Packages.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andy Haldane & Mark Kruger, 2002. "The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Winter), pages 3-13.
    2. Guzman Martin & Heymann Daniel, 2015. "The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 387-404, December.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    4. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-449, June.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    6. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    7. Ilan Goldfajn & Lorenza Martínez & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2021. "Washington Consensus in Latin America: From Raw Model to Straw Man," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 109-132, Summer.
    8. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34710, December.
    9. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
    10. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Participation and Development: Perspectives from the Comprehensive Development Paradigm," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 163-182, June.
    12. Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Creditors' Losses Versus Debt Relief: Results from a Decade of Sovereign Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 343-351, 04-05.
    13. Diwan, I. & Rodrik, D., 1992. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Burden Sharing: A Unified Framework," Princeton Studies in International Economics 73, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    14. Hagen Kruse & Emmanuel Mensah & Kunal Sen & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2021. "A manufacturing renaissance? Industrialization trends in the developing world," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-28, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35647, December.
    16. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot, 2019. "Curse or Blessing? Has the Impact of Debt Relief Lived up to Expectations? A Review of the Effects of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives for Low-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(9), pages 1867-1891, September.
    2. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CAMA Working Papers 2023-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Mensah, Emmanuel B. & Owusu, Solomon & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2023. "Productive efficiency, structural change, and catch-up within Africa," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 78-100.
    5. Çakır, Muhammet Sait & Aydemir, Resul, 2022. "A Dutch disease approach into the premature deindustrialization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    6. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2021. "Understanding China's role in recent debt relief operations: A case study analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 23-41.
    7. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2020. "China’s debt relief actions overseas and macroeconomic implications," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    9. Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph & Enderlein, Henrik, 2021. "Sovereign defaults in court," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Sebastian Horn & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Hidden Defaults," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 531-535, May.
    11. Carré, Sylvain & Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2019. "The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Lévy stochastic processes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 31-43.
    12. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1683-1705, July.
    13. Ajit K. Ghose, 2021. "Structural Change and Development in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 15(1), pages 7-29, April.
    14. González, Marta Ramos & Ureña, Antonio Partal & Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez, 2023. "Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Does the structure of employment affect the external imbalances? Theory and evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 77-83.
    16. Sulkhan Tabaghua, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Post-Pandemic (Covid19) Economic Recovery," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 13215677, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    17. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Elbek, Abdullaev, 2022. "Premature deindustrialization in post-Soviet economies," MPRA Paper 114413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. David Kunst, 2019. "Deskilling among Manufacturing Production Workers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-050/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Dec 2020.
    20. Torres-Brito, David Israel & Cruz-Aké, Salvador & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets [Impact of the Effect of Greenhouse Gas Pollutan," MPRA Paper 119031, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt overhang; development and growth; debt restructuring; policy conditionality; multilateral development banks;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Kessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceprefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.