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How fast is population ageing in China?

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  • Yinhua mai
  • Xiujian Peng
  • Wei Chen

Abstract

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts China's population projections to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Despite the below-replacement fertility, China's population will continue growing for many years. However, there are substantial differences among the twelve scenarios. The maximum population could range from less than 1.4 billion to more than 1.6 billion. One of the notable trends is the rapid population ageing. By the end of 2050 more than one-fifth to one-third of China's population would be aged 65 and over. Demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which in turn is determined by the changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population changes and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century and well prepared for all possible challenges they may arise.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinhua mai & Xiujian Peng & Wei Chen, 2009. "How fast is population ageing in China?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-208, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-208
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    2. Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pengkun Wu & Yuanyuan Wu & Chong Wu, 2018. "Research on Fertility Policy in China: The Relative Necessity for Reform Among the Different Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 751-767, January.
    2. Xiujian Peng & Yinhua Mai, 2013. "Population Ageing, Retirement Age Extension and Economic Growth in China A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-237, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Tingzhu Li & Ran Liu & Wei Qi, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity of Migrant Rent Affordability Stress in Urban China: A Comparison between Skilled and Unskilled Migrants at Prefecture Level and Above," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart, 2015. "The effects of ageing and urbanization on China's future population and labor force," Research Report 15002-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cohort-component; Brass logit transformation; Population projection; Population ageing; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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