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Growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy 1996-2003: A CGE analysis

Author

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  • Tran Hoang Nhi
  • James A. Giesecke

Abstract

We use MVN - a dynamic CGE model of the Vietnamese economy - to investigate the Vietnamese economy's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favourable shifts in foreign preferences for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Tran Hoang Nhi & James A. Giesecke, 2008. "Growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy 1996-2003: A CGE analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-171, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-171
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    Cited by:

    1. Giesecke, James A. & Nhi, Tran Hoang, 2010. "Modelling value-added tax in the presence of multi-production and differentiated exemptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 156-173, April.
    2. Adam Fforde, 2017. "The emerging core characteristics of Vietnam's political economy," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 45-60, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE model; Vietnam;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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