IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the effects of China's Accession to the World Trade Organisation

Author

Listed:
  • Yin Hua Mai
  • Mark Horridge
  • Frances Perkins

Abstract

Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) marks a new era in China's economic reform. In this new era, state capital will lose its dominance of pillar industries such as iron and steel, automobile, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metal, insurance, telecommunication, banking, wholesale, and utilities. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model of China to estimate the economic benefits from China opening its pillar industries to private foreign and domestic capital. The study anticipates that lowering direct entry barriers to private capital will boost productivity by encouraging new competition and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into these industries. In this study, the productivity gains from lowering direct entry barriers to FDI and domestic private capital are empirically estimated through a historical simulation of opening the light manufacturing industries. The opening of the light manufacturing industries to private capital happened in the early 1990s following a major policy shift marked by Deng Xiaoping's southern tour. From 1992, this policy shift led to a surge in China's inward FDI flows. The productivity gains estimated from the historical simulation are then used to simulate the opening of the pillar industries following China's WTO entry in 2001. As a result of the expected productivity gains in these pillar industries, this study concludes that WTO accession will not adversely affect production and employment in the pillar manufacturing industries, such as the automobile and parts industry. This result contrasts with the findings of most general equilibrium analyses of China's WTO entry that focus on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers to merchandise trade. In the long term, productivity gains related to WTO accession should place China in a position to become an important production base for capital-intensive manufactured products as well as light manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin Hua Mai & Mark Horridge & Frances Perkins, 2003. "Estimating the effects of China's Accession to the World Trade Organisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-137, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-137.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2003-04
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-137.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-125, March.
    2. Fugazza, Marco & Fiess, Norbert M. & Maloney, William, 2002. "Exchange rate appreciations, labor market rigidities, and informality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2771, The World Bank.
    3. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Ghanem, Hafez & Thierfelder, Karen, 1997. "Economic Reform and Labor Unions: A General-Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Bangladesh and Indonesia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(1), pages 145-170, January.
    4. Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    6. McDonald, Ian M & Solow, Robert M, 1981. "Wage Bargaining and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 896-908, December.
    7. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo, 1979. "Quasi-Walrasian Theories of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 102-107, May.
    9. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    10. Jones, Ronald W, 1971. "Distortions in Factor Markets and the General Equilibrium Model of Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 437-459, May-June.
    11. Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Brian Parmenter & Xiao-Guang Zhang, 1998. "Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-130, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    12. Yin Hua Mai, 2003. "Effects of Reducing Tariffs and Endogenous Productivity Growth," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-139, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    13. Lawrence F. Katz & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "Industry Rents: Evidence and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1989 Micr), pages 209-290.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eromenko, Igor, 2010. "Accession to the WTO. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: the Case of Ukraine. Part I," MPRA Paper 67476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wim Naudé & Riaan Rossouw, 2011. "Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 99-134, April.
    4. Yinhua Mai & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2010. "CHINAGEM: A Monash-Styled Dynamic CGE Model of China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-201, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    5. Eromenko, Igor, 2011. "Accession to the WTO. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: the Case of Ukraine," MPRA Paper 67535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yinhua Mai & Philip Adams & Mingtai Fan & Ronglin Li & Zhaoyang Zheng, 2005. "Modelling the Potential Benefits of an Australia-China free Trade Agreement," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-153, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Rae, Allan N., 2008. "China’s agriculture, smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 1-20.
    8. Terrie L. Walmsley & Thomas W. Hertel & Elena Ianchovichina, 2006. "Assessing The Impact Of China'S Wto Accession On Investment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 315-339, October.
    9. Yinhua Mai, 2005. "The MONASH-Multi-Country (MMC) Model and the Investment Liberalisation in China's Oil Industry," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-150, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    10. Mai, Yin Hua & Adams, Philip & Dixon, Peter & Menon, Jayant, 2010. "The Awakening Chinese Economy: Macro and Terms of Trade Impacts on 10 Major Asia-Pacific Countries," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 66, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Jiao Wang & David G. Mayes & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "Income Distribution and Labour Movement in China After WTO Membership: a CGE Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-38, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Wang, Jiao & Mayes, David & Wan, Guanghua, 2005. "Effects of WTO membership on income distribution and labour movement in China : A CGE analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. Allan Rae, 2008. "China's agriculture, smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution? ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 283-302, September.
    14. Hübler, Michael, 2009. "Energy saving technology diffusion via FDI and trade: a CGE model of China," Kiel Working Papers 1479, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Yin Hua Mai, 2003. "Effects of Reducing Tariffs and Endogenous Productivity Growth," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-139, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hélène Zajdela, 1990. "Le dualisme du marché du travail : enjeux et fondements théoriques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 92(1), pages 31-42.
    2. Mahmood Araï & Gérard Ballot & Ali Skalli, 1996. "Différentiels intersectoriels de salaire et caractéristiques des employeurs en France," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 299(1), pages 37-58.
    3. Sabien Dobbelaere & Jacques Mairesse, 2010. "Comparing Micro-evidence on Rent Sharing from Three Different Approaches," NBER Working Papers 16220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Veronique Genre & Karsten Kohn & Daphne Momferatou, 2011. "Understanding inter-industry wage structures in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1299-1313.
    5. Robert Plasman & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2006. "Industry wage differentials, unobserved ability, and rent-sharing: evidence from matched employer-employee, 1992-2005," DULBEA Working Papers 06-14.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Ilan Tojerow, 2008. "Industry Wage Differentials Rent Sharing and Gender in Belgium," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 55-65.
    7. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2373-2437 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Esmedekh Lkhanaajav, 2016. "CoPS-style CGE modelling and analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-264, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Nicole Guertzgen, 2009. "Rent‐sharing and Collective Bargaining Coverage: Evidence from Linked Employer–Employee Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 323-349, June.
    10. Sonia R Bhalotra, 1998. "Investigating Rationality in Wage-Setting," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 10, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    11. Petrucci, Alberto, 2006. "Wealth Accumulation and Growth in a Specific-Factors Model of Trade and Finance," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp06029, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    12. Debraj Ray, 2024. "Contracts, Wage Differentials and Involuntary Unemployment," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 12(1), pages 10-31, April.
    13. Sophia Delipalla & Peter Sanfey, 2001. "Commodity Taxes, Wage Determination, and Profits," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 3(2), pages 203-217, April.
    14. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Job Rents in a Stylized Labor Market," Chapters in Economics,, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Manash Ranjan Gupta & Priya Brata Dutta, 2022. "Taxation, capital accumulation, environment and unemployment in an efficiency wage model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 151-198, March.
    16. Måns Söderbom & Francis Teal & Anthony Wambugu, 2002. "Does firm size really affect earnings?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2006. "Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 298-316, December.
    18. Joao Ricardo Faria, 1998. "Supervision and Effort in an Intertemporal Efficiency Wage Model: The Role of the Solow Condition," Studies in Economics 9814, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Marcello Estevao & Stacey Tevlin, 2000. "Do firms share their success with workers? The response of wages to product market conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Jhon Alexander Méndez Sayago, 2014. "Plusvalía, salario real y eficiencia del trabajo en el sector manufacturero en Colombia," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, June.
    21. Jhon Alexander Méndez Sayago & Hugo Alfonso Hernández Escolar, 2014. "Relación de largo plazo y análisis de causalidad y sensibilidad entre los salarios reales y la productividad laboral en el sector manufacturero a partir de cifras de los departamentos en Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 6(2), pages 341-366, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China WTO; SOEs; investment liberalization; pillar industries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.