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Crecimiento económico colombiano y quiebres estructurales endógenos

Author

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  • Andrés David Pinchao Rosero
  • Jorge Mario Uribe Gil

Abstract

Este documento explora mediante pruebas de cambio estructural endógeno, posibles quiebres en la distribución no condicional del crecimiento del PIB real colombiano entre 1924 y 2013. No se encuentra evidencia de algún quiebre estructural en la tasa de crecimiento económico durante el periodo analizado, contradiciendo previos hallazgos de la literatura académica colombiana. Para la serie en niveles del logaritmo del PIB real se obtiene evidencia de tres cambios estructurales en la tendencia, en los anos 1942, 1972 y 1999. El último podría asociarse con reformas económicas, en términos de apertura de las cuentas real y financiera de la economía colombiana. Se comparan las estimaciones con la situación para otros 16 países de la región. En este caso, a diferencia del colombiano, los resultados apuntan a la presencia de quiebres a finales de la década de los 70, durante la década de los 80, y a principios de los 90 para algunos países de la región.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés David Pinchao Rosero & Jorge Mario Uribe Gil, 2016. "Crecimiento económico colombiano y quiebres estructurales endógenos," Ensayos de Economía 15537, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000418:015537
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    File URL: http://www.revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ede/article/view/63659
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crecimiento económico; PIB; quiebre estructural; apertura económica.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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