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Tipo de cambio real multilateral en Argentina (1994-2007): un análisis sobre sus determinantes; su valor de equilibrio y su vinculación con el flujo neto de capitales

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  • Errea, Damián

Abstract

Esta investigación se centra en el estudio del Tipo de Cambio Real Multilateral (TCRM) de Argentina en el período 1994-2007 y en especial en la relación entre esta variable y el flujo neto de capitales. En el marco teórico se plantean los principales enfoques conceptuales que permiten explicar la evolución del Tipo de Cambio Real (TCR), es decir, la Paridad del Poder Adquisitivo (PPA) y el enfoque de los determinantes reales del TCR. Se analizan, de acuerdo a la teoría económica, los problemas generados por la volatilidad y el desalineamiento del TCR y también se hace referencia a los efectos del flujo neto de capitales, y en particular de las variaciones de Reservas, sobre la evolución del TCR. A la luz de los planteos teóricos y metodológicos adoptados por investigaciones previas y utilizando el modelo econométrico de cointegración, el trabajo empírico se basa en la búsqueda de las variables determinantes del TCRM de Argentina; la estimación de su valor de equilibrio de corto y mediano plazo y el cálculo del grado de desalineamiento en cada trimestre del período. Se busca también estimar la relevancia explicativa de la variable Flujo Neto de Capitales y su relación con el grado de desalineamiento del TCRM. Por último se evalúa la política de intervención del BCRA desde el punto de vista de su contribución al alineamiento del TCRM con respecto a su nivel teórico de equilibrio de corto y de mediano plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Errea, Damián, 2012. "Tipo de cambio real multilateral en Argentina (1994-2007): un análisis sobre sus determinantes; su valor de equilibrio y su vinculación con el flujo neto de capitales," Nülan. Deposited Documents 1654, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    • Handle: RePEc:nmp:nuland:1654
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