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Efectos económicos de futuras sequías en Colombia: Estimación a partir del Fenómeno El Nino 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Germán ROMERO OTALORA
  • Sioux Fanny MELO LEON
  • Leidy Cáterin RIVEROS SALCEDO
  • Andrés Camilo ÁLVAREZ
  • Carolina DIAZ GIRALDO
  • Silvia Liliana CALDERON DIAZ

Abstract

Este trabajo cuantifica el impacto de futuras sequías en Colombia, mediante el cálculo de los costos económicos que tuvo para el país el fenómeno El Nino ocurrido en 2015. En particular, este documento estima los efectos que una disminución del recurso hídrico -producto de un evento de variabilidad climática como El Nino- tiene sobre los sectores económicos, y valora la pérdida del ecosistema de bosque que generan los incendios forestales. Los resultados indican que una reducción en un 20% de las cantidades de agua y el aumento en un 4,5% de los precios de la energía eléctrica impactan, de manera conjunta, el 0,6% del PIB. Por su parte, los servicios ecosistémicos que los bosques dejan de proveer a la economía cuando hay pérdida de la cobertura vegetal, producto de los incendios, fueron valorados en un 0,1% del PIB sólo para el ano 2015. En ese sentido, no tomar medidas de adaptación a la variabilidad tiene costos de al menos 0,7% del PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Germán ROMERO OTALORA & Sioux Fanny MELO LEON & Leidy Cáterin RIVEROS SALCEDO & Andrés Camilo ÁLVAREZ & Carolina DIAZ GIRALDO & Silvia Liliana CALDERON DIAZ, 2017. "Efectos económicos de futuras sequías en Colombia: Estimación a partir del Fenómeno El Nino 2015," Archivos de Economía 15851, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:015851
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    Cited by:

    1. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    2. Romero, José Vicente & Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara, 2024. "Weather shocks and inflation expectations in semi-structural models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).
    3. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fenómeno El Niño; recurso hídrico; insumo producto; cambio climático; agua;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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