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Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Wilmar Cabrera
  • Esteban Gómez
  • Juan Carlos Mendoza

Abstract

Este artículo se pregunta si es oportuno modificar la tasa de interés técnica utilizada para descontar el pasivo pensional del nivel actual de 4% anual, dada, por un lado, la trayectoria reciente que ha tenido la tasa de interés real y, por otro, las circunstancias diferentes que vive la economía en relación con 1994 cuando fue fijada en dicho nivel. Se hacen diferentes pronósticos y simulaciones utilizando distintos enfoques estadísticos y financieros. Así mismo, se toma en cuenta la restricción macroeconómica que impone el crecimiento de muy largo plazo de la economía. Los resultados sugieren que no se debería mover la tasa de descuento del pasivo pensional y que ésta debería continuar en el 4% anual.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Wilmar Cabrera & Esteban Gómez & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2013. "Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional," Borradores de Economia 11101, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de interés real; tasa de interés técnica; pasivo pensional; regla de oro.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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