IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/009316.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quiebre estructural de la relación entre la política fiscal y el riesgo soberano en las economías emergentes: el caso colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Manuel Julio R.
  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Ligia Alba Melo B.

Abstract

En este trabajo se muestra que el EMBI-Colombia está determinado por el apetito por riesgo de los inversionistas internacionales y que su respuesta es no lineal y está influenciada por la postura fiscal del gobierno. Se encuentra también que la relación entre estas variables sufrió un cambio estructural favorable en la mitad de la década del 2000, que parece estar asociado a los mejores fundamentales macroeconómicos locales y al deterioro del entorno internacional. Finalmente, se concluye que el riesgo soberano mantiene una relación unidireccional con la devaluación nominal y la valorización anual del IGBC, sugiriendo que el EMBI aporta la información básica para valorar las perspectivas de los mercados financieros locales.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio R. & Ignacio Lozano & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2012. "Quiebre estructural de la relación entre la política fiscal y el riesgo soberano en las economías emergentes: el caso colombiano," Borradores de Economia 9316, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra693.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," Research Department Publications 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Lozano-Espitia, Luis Ignacio & Melo-Becerra, Ligia Alba & Ramos-Forero, Jorge Enrique, 2013. "Flujos de capitales y política fiscal en las economías emergentes de América Latina," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 13, pages 533-563, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Ignacio Lozano Espitia & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos, 2016. "La política fiscal frente a los flujos de capital: evidencia para algunos países de América Latina," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(62), pages 53-85, July.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo & Hernán Rincon, 2012. "External Shocks and Asset Prices in Latin America before and after Lehman Brothers’ Bankruptcy," Borradores de Economia 704i, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Luis Fernando Melo & Hernán Rincón, 2013. "Choques externos y precios de los activos en Latinoamérica antes y después de la quiebra de Lehman Brothers," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(71), pages 1-35, June.
    6. Ramos-Forero, Jorge Enrique & Melo-Becerra, Ligia Alba & Zárate-Solano, Hector Manuel, 2015. "Mercado de bonos soberanos y estabilidad financiera : una aplicación de gráficos acíclicos direccionados (GAD) y modelos SVAR," Chapters, in: Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. (ed.), Política monetaria y estabilidad financiera en economías pequeñas y abiertas, chapter 14, pages 443-463, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2021. "Estimating debt limits for emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 836-855.
    2. Ngan Tran, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal balance on monetary variables: evidence from large emerging economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1045-1076, September.
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2014. "Public debt and social security: Level of formality matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 490-507.
    4. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay, 2008. "Inflation Targeting in Turkey," Working Papers 445, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    5. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "The Terms of Trade as Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Economies: An Empirical Study," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010eng, July-Dece.
    6. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Stefano Ugolini, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: Lessons from Early-Modern Venice," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23205, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Moreira, Tito Belchior S., 2011. "Brazil: an empirical study on fiscal policy transmission," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    10. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Asymmetric Sovereign Risk: Implications for Climate Change Preparation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13447, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
    12. Vladimir Tomsik, 2012. "Some insights into monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the Czech Republic," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 161-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    14. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    15. Helder Ferreira de Mendonca & Rubens Teixeira da Silva, 2009. "Fiscal effect from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 885-897.
    16. Hove, Seedwell & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert & Touna Mama, Albert, 2017. "Do monetary, fiscal and financial institutions really matter for inflation targeting in emerging market economies?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 128-149.
    17. Afonso, António & Sousa, Alexandre, 2024. "Monetary and fiscal interplay: Does it work both ways?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    18. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Ndanshau, Michael O.A., 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Deficit on Monetary Policy Transmission in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    19. Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Public debt and inflation: Empirical evidence from Ghana," Working Papers 27063, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    20. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "Los términos de intercambio como impulsores de fluctuaciones económicas en economías en desarrollo: estudio empírico," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política fiscal; deuda soberana; análisis de riego; mercados financieros;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:009316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.