IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/002650.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evidencia Sobre Las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Humberto Cardona
  • Adriana Pontón
  • Eduardo Sarmiento

Abstract

En el presente artículo se analizan las políticas desinflacionarias utilizadas para lograr el paso de inflación moderada a inflación de un dígito en 9 países cuya estructura es semejante a la colombiana y cuyo éxito desinflacionario ha sido sostenible. Estos son : Chile, Bolivia, Grecia, España, Portugal, Irlanda, Israel, Nueva Zelandia e Islandia. Además, para cada uno se utilizan dos criterios de análisis: se identifica un episodio desinflacionario (según metodología de Ball) y se selecciona un año de quiebre en la inflación (según definición de los autores); así, se evalúa el comportamiento de políticas económicas durante el episodio desinflacionario, y antes y después del quiebre. Las políticas evaluadas son : control monetario, contracción de los salarios reales, disminución del déficit fiscal y revaluación del tipo de cambio. También se mide el costo de desinflar en términos del crecimiento del producto. Así mismo, se rozan aspectos de desarrollo institucional importantes en el logro de inflaciones bajas. Se compara el caso colombiano con respecto a estas políticas y se trata de responder porqué Colombia no ha logrado un dígito.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Humberto Cardona & Adriana Pontón & Eduardo Sarmiento, 1998. "Evidencia Sobre Las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional," Borradores de Economia 2650, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra102.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-538, June.
    2. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Imrohoruglu, Ayse & Prescott, Edward C, 1991. "Seigniorage as a Tax: A Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 462-475, August.
    4. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1992. "Inflación y devaluación como un fenómeno fiscal: la financiación óptima del gobierno a través de la tributación, el señoreaje y las utilidades por compraventa de divisas," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 11(22), pages 7-50, December.
    5. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
    6. Laurence Ball, 1991. "The genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 439-461.
    7. S. Eijffinger & M. Van Keulen, 1995. "Central bank independence in another eleven countries," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 39-81.
    8. F. Giavazzi & L. Spaventa, 1989. "Italy: The Real Effects of Inflation and Disinflation," Working Papers 71, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Inflación Inercial , Tasa De Cambio Y Anclas," Borradores de Economia 2849, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1996. "The long-run costs of moderate inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q II), pages 71-88.
    11. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February.
    12. Donald T. Brash, 1996. "Reducing inflation in New Zealand: some practical issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 123-138.
    13. Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1991. "The welfare costs of moderate inflations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 483-518.
    14. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Adolfo Meisel R., 1996. "Why No Hyperinflation In Colombia? On The Determinants Of Stable Economic Policies," Borradores de Economia 3780, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16.
    17. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    18. Mervyn A. King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91.
    19. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia," NBER Working Papers 0900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Bogdanowicz-Bindert, Christine A., 1983. "Portugal, Turkey and Peru: Three successful stabilization programmes under the auspices of the IMF," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 65-70, January.
    21. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility," MPRA Paper 20486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Mr. Jorge Roldos, 1994. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Working Papers 1994/084, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1996. "Disinflation and Taxation: The Case of Israel," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 37-46, January.
    24. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Clavijo, 2000. "Reflexiones Sobre Política Monetaria E "Inflación Objetivo" En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3423, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Sergio Clavijo, 2000. "Reflexiones Sobre Política Monetaria e "Inflación Objetivo" en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 141, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Carlos Echeverry, 1996. "The rise and Perpetuation of a Moderate Inflation, Colombia 1970-1991," Borradores de Economia 050, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Richard Mash, 2000. "The Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy with Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Yvan Lengwiler & Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Optimal Discretion," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(2), pages 261-276, June.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Time-consistent policy and persistent changes in inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 329-350, November.
    5. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    6. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Carvalho, 2010. "Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 799-831, August.
    7. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Carvalho, Carlos Viana de, 2003. "Endogenous time-dependent rules and the costs of disinflation with imperfect credibility," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 505, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    8. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "Disinflation and fiscal reform: a neoclassical perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 265-297, December.
    9. Stanley Fischer, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 5064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. M.A. Jenkins, 1996. "Central bank independence and inflation performance: panacea or placebo?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 241-270.
    11. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1998. "Expectation Traps and Discretion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 462-492, August.
    12. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    13. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    14. Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Nunes, Ricardo, 2012. "Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 135-149.
    16. Mammadov, Fuad, 2014. "Central Bank Credibility and Black Market Exchange Rate Premia: A Panel Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 65572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    18. Christoph Moser & Axel Dreher, 2010. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1589-1612, December.
    19. Arman Mansoorian & Mohammed Mohsin, 2004. "Monetary policy in a cash‐in‐advance economy: employment, capital accumulation, and the term structure of interest rates," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 336-352, May.
    20. Kamin, Steven B., 2001. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate-based stabilizations: an empirical examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 237-253, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:002650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.