IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/002060.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Weekly Colombian Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Norberto Rodríguez

Abstract

This document reviews and applies recently developed techniques for Bayesian estimation and model selection in the context of Time Series modeling for Stochastic Volatility. After the literature review on Generalized Conditional Autoregressive models, Stochastic Volatility models, and the relevant results on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC), an example applying such techniques is shown. The methodology is used with a series of Weekly Colombian-USA Exchange Rate on seven different models. The GARCH model, which uses Type-IV Pearson distribution, is favored for the selecting technique, Reversible Jump MCMC, over other models, including Stochastic Volatility Models with a Student-t distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Norberto Rodríguez, 2000. "Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Weekly Colombian Exchange Rate," Borradores de Economia 2060, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra161.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Jacquier & Nicholas G. Polson & Peter Rossi, "undated". "Stochastic Volatility: Univariate and Multivariate Extensions," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-360, July.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-235, April.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-317, July.
    7. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    9. Dale J. Poirier, 1995. "Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics: A Comparative Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161494, April.
    10. Vrontos, I D & Dellaportas, P & Politis, D N, 2000. "Full Bayesian Inference for GARCH and EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 187-198, April.
    11. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 53-65, March.
    12. Nagahara, Yuichi, 1999. "The PDF and CF of Pearson type IV distributions and the ML estimation of the parameters," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 251-264, July.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Font, Begoña, 1998. "Modelización de series temporales financieras. Una recopilación," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3664, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Stefan Mittnik & Marc Paolella & Svetlozar Rachev, 1998. "Unconditional and Conditional Distributional Models for the Nikkei Index," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 5(2), pages 99-128, May.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.
    5. Dongweí Su, 2003. "Risk, Return and Regulation in Chinese Stock Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Chinese Stock Markets A Research Handbook, chapter 3, pages 75-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hu, Michael Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Tsoukalas, Christos, 1997. "The European exchange rates before and after the establishment of the European Monetary System," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 235-253, October.
    7. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    8. Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
    9. Amélie Charles, 2008. "Forecasting volatility with outliers in GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 551-565.
    10. Necula Ciprian & Radu Alina-Nicoleta, 2009. "Detecting Regime Switches In The Eur/Ron Exchange Rate Volatility," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 610-615, May.
    11. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, September.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
    13. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Pouvoir prédictif de la volatilité implicite dans le prix des options de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 71-97.
    14. Eskandar A. Tooma, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Egyptian Stock Market Volatility Before and After Price Limits," Working Papers 0310, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2003.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    16. Mendoza-Velázquez, Alfonso & Galvanovskis, Evalds, 2009. "Introducing the GED-Copula with an application to Financial Contagion in Latin America," MPRA Paper 46669, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2010.
    17. Chihwa Kao, 2001. "Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration Heteroskedasticity Models with Estimates of the Variances of Foreign Exchange Rates," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 34, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    18. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
    19. Dinghai Xu & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 08008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
    20. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:002060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.