IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/021297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border

Author

Listed:
  • Malkún Montoya, Samuel

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

In just over ten years trade between Colombia and Venezuela vanished due to diplomatic tensions between both nations and the economic crisis in Venezuela. This study examines the impact of political disruptions, particularly stemming from Colombia's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States in 2009, on Colombian exports to Venezuela. Employing a gravity model incorporating time-varying and country-pair fixed effects, this research forecasts trade flows and compares them to the observed export data. While predicted exports mirror the observed data during most of the series, since 2010 both trends have deviated significantly. Between 2010 and 2015 losses amounted to $6bn, as only 65% of predicted trade took place. In contrast, Colombian exports to other partners in the region maintained an upward trajectory.

Suggested Citation

  • Malkún Montoya, Samuel, 2025. "Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border," Documentos CEDE 21297, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:021297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/handle/1992/75412/dcede2025-02.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel & Silva, Gercione Dionizio & Teixeira, Evandro Camargos, 2018. "The spillover effect of Chinese growth on South America: an analysis from international trade," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    2. Roemer, John E, 1977. "The Effect of Sphere of Influence and Economic Distance on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 318-327, August.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    4. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Facchini, Giovanni & Silva, Peri & Willmann, Gerald, 2013. "The customs union issue: Why do we observe so few of them?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 136-147.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 2007. "The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, January.
    7. Mina Yakop & Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, 2011. "Economic diplomacy, trade and developing countries," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 4(2), pages 253-267.
    8. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    9. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    12. María del Pilar Esguerra Umana & Enrique Montes Uribe & Aaron Garavito Acosta, 2010. "El comercio colombo – venezolano: características y evolución reciente," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, April.
    13. Maddalena Conte & Pierre Cotterlaz & Thierry Mayer, 2022. "The CEPII Gravity Database," Working Papers 2022-05, CEPII research center.
    14. Summary, Rebecca M, 1989. "A Political-Economic Model of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 179-182, February.
    15. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    2. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    3. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2008. "International Trade Integration: A Disaggregated Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI, 2014. "Impact de la rente pétrolière sur la demande des pays frontaliers du Cameroun," Working Papers 201417, CERDI.
    5. A Salim, Ruhu & Mahfuz Kabir, Mohammad, 2011. "Does More Trade Potential Remain in Arab States of the Gulf ?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 217-243.
    6. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Food Trade," MPRA Paper 101658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mireille S. Ntsama Etoundi, 2015. "Impact de la rente pétrolière sur la demande des pays frontaliers du Cameroun," CERDI Working papers halshs-01027500, HAL.
    8. Christian Volpe Martincus & Antoni Estevadeordal & Andrés Gallo & Jessica Luna, 2010. "Information barriers, export promotion institutions, and the extensive margin of trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(1), pages 91-111, April.
    9. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    10. Thomas Orliac, 2012. "The economics of trade facilitation [L'économie de la facilitation des échanges]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03681980, HAL.
    11. Christian Volpe Martincus & Antoni Estevadeordal & Andrés Gallo & Jessica Luna, 2010. "Information Barriers, Export Promotion Institutions, and the Extensive Margin of Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 39358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Hollweg, Claire H. & Lederman, Daniel & Reyes, Jose-Daniel, 2012. "Monitoring export vulnerability to changes in growth rates of major global markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6266, The World Bank.
    13. Zhang, Daowei & Li, Yanshu, 2009. "Forest endowment, logging restrictions, and China's wood products trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-53, March.
    14. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & M. D. Parra & Stephan Klasen, 2014. "Does Aid Promote Donor Exports? Commercial Interest versus Instrumental Philanthropy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 559-587, November.
    15. Mahmut Yasar & David Lisner & Roderick Rejesus, 2012. "Bilateral trade impacts of temporary foreign visitor policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 501-521, September.
    16. Bo Xiong & Sixia Chen, 2014. "Estimating gravity equation models in the presence of sample selection and heteroscedasticity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2993-3003, August.
    17. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    18. Suhas Jadhav & Ishita Ghosh, 2024. "Future Prospects of the Gravity Model of Trade: A Bibliometric Review (1993–2021)," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(1), pages 26-61, February.
    19. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 451-467, April.
    20. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2012. "Specialization, gravity, and European trade in final goods," Working Papers 320, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic diplomacy; trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000089:021297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad De Los Andes-Cede (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceandco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.