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Más Allá de un Boom de Recursos Naturales: Efectos de los Choques Petroleros en la Economía Colombiana

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  • Carolina Gómez Cuenca

Abstract

El estudio analiza la evolución del sector petrolero colombiano en los últimos 30 anos, así como el impacto que su desarrollo ha tenido en el crecimiento y desarrollo de la economía colombiana. Con un análisis descriptivo y empírico con modelos SVAR, se concluye que si bien la producción petrolera impacta el comportamiento de la economía, al no ser este sector más del 10% del PIB, ante un súbito crecimiento en los precios del petróleo, el impacto en los agregados macroeconómicos es moderado y de escasa duración. El análisis se llevó a un campo teórico y con un modelo DSGE, calibrado para Colombia con rigideces de precios, una prima de riesgo que se afecta por el valor de las reservas petroleras y un grupo de reglas fiscales, se encontró que ante choques al precio del crudo, los recursos extraordinarios logran canalizarse a la economía con efectos más persistentes y con menor volatilidad cuando el gobierno implementa una regla fiscal de Balance Estructural.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Gómez Cuenca, 2015. "Más Allá de un Boom de Recursos Naturales: Efectos de los Choques Petroleros en la Economía Colombiana," Documentos CEDE 12565, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:012565
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos Económicos; Reglas de Política Fiscal; Modelo DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

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