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Análisis digital y detección de elecciones atípicas

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Jara
  • Felipe Parra
  • Alvaro Riascos
  • Mauricio Romero

Abstract

Este trabajo utiliza la Ley de Newcomb-Benford y las pruebas de Beber y Scacco para analizar las elecciones presidenciales desde 1958 hasta el 2006, las presidenciales de 1922, las elecciones de Congreso en 2010, y las votaciones para Alcalde en Cali del 2007. Este es el primer estudio y aplicación sistemática de técnicas cuantitativas para la detección de anomalías en resultados electorales en Colombia. Aunque estas técnicas no ofrecen una prueba de la existencia de fraude, ni identifican el origen o receptor de una posible manipulación de los datos, sí permiten generar alertas que podrían ser utilizadas para priorizar investigaciones. Los resultados muestran la existencia de resultados atípicos en las elecciones presidenciales de 1970 y en las de Senado y Cámara de 2010. También se observan, aunque en menor grado, votaciones atípicas en las presidenciales de 1922, 1982, y en las votaciones de la Alcaldía de Cali 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Jara & Felipe Parra & Alvaro Riascos & Mauricio Romero, 2011. "Análisis digital y detección de elecciones atípicas," Documentos CEDE 9064, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:009064
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    File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/dcede2011-34.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fewster, R. M., 2009. "A Simple Explanation of Benford's Law," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(1), pages 26-32.
    2. Isaías N. Chaves & Leopoldo Fergusson & James A. Robinson, 2009. "He Who Counts Elects: Determinants of Fraud in the 1922 Colombian Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 15127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fraude electoral; Ley de Benford; Pruebas de Beber y Scacco; Análisis digital; Elecciones Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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