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Time varying fiscal policy in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira

    (Banco de Portugal and CEMAPRE, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon)

  • Artur Silva Lopes

    (CEMAPRE, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon)

Abstract

To investigate the time heterogeneity effects of fiscal policy in the U.S., we use a non-recursive, Blanchard and Perotti-like structural VAR with time-varying parameters, estimated through Bayesian simulation over the 1965:2-2009:2 period. Our evidence suggests that fiscal policy has lost some capacity to stimulate output but that this trend is more pronounced for taxes net of transfers than for government expenditure, whose effectiveness declines only slightly. Fiscal multipliers keep conventional signs throughout. An investigation of changes in fiscal policy conduct indicates an increase in the countercyclical activism of net taxes over time, which appears to have reached a maximum during the 2008-09 recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Artur Silva Lopes, 2010. "Time varying fiscal policy in the U.S," CEMAPRE Working Papers 1004, Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
    • Handle: RePEc:cma:wpaper:1004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Bayesian estimation; Structural change; Macroeconomic stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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